Mary Peltola ousted by GOP opponent in Alaska House race

[In It to Win It]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/peltola-ousted-gop-opponent-alaska-164339253.html

Republican Nick Begich has ousted incumbent Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola to win Alaska’s lone House seat, Decision Desk HQ projects. That marks 220 seats for Republicans, surpassing the 218 needed to control the chamber.

A little over two years after Peltola flipped the red state’s at-large congressional district into Democratic control, Republicans coalesced behind Begich to help boost him to another flip.

Peltola finished first in this summer’s top-four, nonpartisan primary, followed by Begich and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R). But Dahlstrom, backed by former President Trump, then bowed out of the race as the party sought to avoid fissures that were seen as paving the path for Peltola in the midterms.

House Republicans’ campaign arm had targeted the Alaska seat as an “offensive pickup” opportunity and named Dahlstrom to its “Young Guns” list, but its chair praised Dahlstrom for her exit. Begich then picked up Trump’s endorsement.

Still, the GOP faced an uphill battle to unseat Peltola, a rare Democrat representing a state that went to Trump in both 2016 and 2020. More than half of all Alaska voters are notably not registered with a major political party.

[elleng]

1. ;-(

[ColinC]

2. It isnt impossible for her to get all the votes from the second choices of the remaining candidates

But very unlikely.

Peltola would have a good shot at challenging Dan Sullivan in 2026, especially if ranked choice stays in tact. But maybe even without it!

[Polybius]

7. Ranked-choice is hanging by a thread

To vote to repeal it is leading 50.3% to 49.7%, or by 1,676 votes. 16,000 votes are outstanding.

[ColinC]

8. So close!

🤞

[ColinC]

10. I just saw thats begich's percentage just fell to 48.7

With still a little more to count?

Perhaps it isn't completely over yet.

[ColinC]

11. Update

Link to tweet

[soandso]

12. Current numbers

Last Updated: Nov 19, 2024, 12:04 AM
95% est. reporting

Candidates Party Votes Pct.
Nick Begich
GOP 156,415 48.6%

Mary Peltola *
DEM 149,192 46.4%

John Howe
OTH 12,647 3.9%

Eric Hafner
DEM 3,304 1%
Total 321,558

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-House/

[ColinC]

13. My excitement might not be warranted, but these numbers excite me.

5% left to count with the splits breaking hugely in favor of Peltola? 🤞

[soandso]

14. How many would 5% be?

He's got a 2.2% lead right now and he's a Begich, a well known name in Alaska politics.

[ColinC]

15. I mean shes closed in almost half a percent already.

With for less than 5% of the vote left. If there actually is about 5%, that could perhaps close it -and I'm guessing entirely here, but another
Half percent? If she can get within a point and a half, she could have at least a shot once the ranked choice numbers come into play.

[soandso]

16. Isn't the ranked choice stuff figured into the current numbers?

I have no clue about it and just find it confusing as hell. I guess if we even knew how many ballots they have left to count it would still be hard to estimate her chances because of that. I'm not even gonna try!

[ColinC]

17. It is not. Ranked choice comes after. It takes the % from the other two candidates and adds their second choices

To the top candidates.right now we are just getting raw votes. If nobody gets more than 50%, then the 3rd and 4rd places candidate's voter's next choices are added.

Some estimates I've seen say about 8k or so left of provisional which will heavily favor peltola. My guess is she closes the gap at least by another percent before the RCV is conducted.

[soandso]

20. Oh!

Thanks for explaining that. Do the ballots have all four of those candidates on them so the voter ranks their choices 1,2,3,4? If so, then I'm sure she'd get the votes from the other Dem and the other guy, Howe? I quick looked him up and he's an independent who thinks Alaska should be it's own country and looks quite conservative beyond that so maybe his votes would shift to Begich? What a strange system this is. Is is better or worse than the usual?

[2naSalit]

3. Bummer!

Maybe she'll be back in some other position.

[Wiz Imp]

4. I don't get this

Nothing has really changed in the past week, so why call it now and not a week ago? Begich leads by 9175 votes and there are over 15000 votes for other candidates to be reallocated to their second choice. The chances of the result changing are small, but not impossible. The 2nd choice votes will be counted on November 20, so why not just wait until then when it will be OFFICIAL? Makes no sense.

[soandso]

5. The Begich name is big in Alaska politics

This guy's grandfather was a congressman who disappeared in a plane crash with Hale Boggs (Cokie Roberts' father) in the 70s. His father is a scientist who opposed Project HAARP and has written several books on electronic pollution. His uncles have both been senators (one federal, the other still a state senator). The family are Dems and he's the first R.

[appmanga]

6. This is not official. It's a call from someone's "Decision Desk".

Until they make it official, and AK doesn't end it's counting until Nov. 20th, and then does it's ranked choice exercise, it's not official.

And I didn't know The Hill had a "decision desk". They barely have writers.

[Cha]

9. So SAD!! I was hoping she would

Win So Much!

I Hope the Dems came Out for her. 💙🇺🇸🕊️🕯️🕯️

[soandso]

18. I just realized there's another Dem running against Peltola!

WTF? The party shouldn't allow that. Don't they have a primary where that gets settled? This ranked choice shit is weird!

[In It to Win It]

19. IIRC, that's how Mary Peltola ended up squeaky by when she was first election, with two Republicans splitting the vote

and then beating Sarah Palin in the final round.

[soandso]

21. Why does this feel like some kind of betting thing in Vegas?

Is it a good system or a bad one? I wonder who came up with this. Is it used in other countries or something?