PA Senate: Casey now behind by less than 18k votes?

[ColinC]

Does anybody know how many mail ballots are left? TIA

Official McCormick lead is now 17432

As of yesterday it was about 26k. Does that really mean Casey cut the lead by almost 10k??

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-us-senate.html

There were around 80k as of yesterday. My guess is that was cut in half if the gap was closed so substantially.

[Polybius]

1. NBC News says the estimated votes remaining are 25,000

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results

[usregimechange]

2. He'd have to win the vast majority. But a lot of them may be from philly

[ColinC]

3. "Vast majority" would be like 90%

Or if it's slightly less, it could fall into a range (100-200 gap) that a recount could flip with.

[Polybius]

5. I think he's leading in Philly by like 78% to 20%

So, let's say the remaining votes go 78% to Casey and 20% for McCormick. That's 19,500 for Casey, and 5,000 for McCormick. Let's add that to what we have so far:

Casey: 3,378,352 + 19,500 = 3,397,852

McCormick: 3,395,784 + 5,000 = 3,400,784

Correct, still not enough.

[ColinC]

4. Thank you!!!

Yeah I think like 90% would need to go to casey. Not sure how likely that is or not. But maybe it will fall at least within a range where the recount will actually flip the seat back to him.

[Polybius]

6. Without getting out the calculator again, I'm nearly certain that 90% would win it for Casey

I did the math above for Casey winning 78% of the remaining 25,000 votes left to be counted, and that leaves him just 2,932 votes short. Still though, 90% is a tall task.

[ColinC]

7. I dont think he can get past over an almost 3k deficit in a recount. But if its cut in half, mayyybe

Last edited Sat Nov 16, 2024, 10:15 PM - Edit history (1)

I wonder what the splits have been with the recent counts... 🤔

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. There is still some hope

Link to tweet

[Polybius]

9. PA Supreme Court again rules that Philly and other counties cannot count undated mail ballots

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday issued a ruling reiterating its previous stance that undated or misdated mail ballots should not be counted in the 2024 election, dealing a blow to Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey’s hopes that a recount and litigation will help him overcome his more than 15,000-vote deficit to Republican Dave McCormick.

The 4-3 ruling, which was requested by the Republican Party and opposed by Casey’s campaign, followed moves by elections officials in Democratic-controlled counties — including Philadelphia, Bucks, and Montgomery — to have the ballots counted despite the high court instructing them to exclude those votes earlier in the year. The ruling applies to all counties.

Democrats in those counties and elsewhere have pushed to include mail ballots with defects related to the dates voters are required to write on them because the dates are not used by election administrators to determine whether ballots are legitimate. Instead, they only count ballots that are received between when the ballots are distributed and Election Day, making it impossible for a vote to be counted outside of that timeframe regardless of what date a voter writes on the ballot.

Republicans have argued that those votes must be excluded from the count because state law requires voters to date their mail ballots. McCormick’s campaign joined the GOP lawsuit after it was filed. While the ruling settles how these types of ballots are handled this year, the longer legal battle may not be over because the court has not yet weighed in on the underlying question of whether rejecting undated ballots on what Democrats describe as a technicality constitutes a violation of rights guaranteed to voters by the state constitution.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/pennsylvania-supreme-court-undated-mail-ballots-senate-recount-20241118.html

[ColinC]

10. Thank you! Sounds like republicans easily have the upper hand here, unfortunately

[mvd]

11. Hoping until the end

I’m a PA resident and McCormick is as bad as Toomey and Santorum were and maybe even worse. Whatever happens, a recount will help assuage fears that Repuke shenanigans were involved.

[Takket]

12. kind of off topic, but why do ballots have to be dated?

What difference does it make as long as you deliver or mail it to the clerk before the deadline to be counted?

[mvd]

13. I think it's unnecessary

But unfortunately it’s a requirement that is hard to rule against.