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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe so-called "bullet ballots" and too many voting for president only
This comes up several times a day with the assertion that swing states had far more ballots voting for president (presumably Trump) only and skipping the rest of the ballot/voting top of the ticket exclusively. So, I finally took a look and posted the following in another thread where it's not really going to been seen much. I'm reposting here for anyone interested:
I took some random states, some swing states and some not, and compared the difference between the number of votes for president to the number of votes in their senate races. I used Decision Desk for the latest totals.
California
Presidential Votes: 15,104,778
Senate Votes: 14,638,283
Percentage Difference: ((15,104,778 - 14,638,283) / 15,104,778) * 100 ≈ 3.09%
Arizona
Presidential Votes: 3,378,651
Senate Votes: 3,337,566
Percentage Difference: ((3,378,651 - 3,337,566) / 3,378,651) * 100 ≈ 1.22%
New Mexico
Presidential Votes: 923,319
Senate Votes: 903,201
Percentage Difference: ((923,319 - 903,201) / 923,319) * 100 ≈ 2.18%
Minnesota
Presidential Votes: 3,242,938
Senate Votes: 3,186,151
Percentage Difference: ((3,242,938 - 3,186,151) / 3,242,938) * 100 ≈ 1.75%
Wisconsin
Presidential Votes: 3,415,154
Senate Votes: 3,387,420
Percentage Difference: ((3,415,154 - 3,387,420) / 3,415,154) * 100 ≈ 0.81%
Washington
Presidential Votes: 3,845,914
Senate Votes: 3,752,419
Percentage Difference: ((3,845,914 - 3,752,419) / 3,845,914) * 100 ≈ 2.43%
Texas
Presidential Votes: 11,559,607
Senate Votes: 11,269,112
Percentage Difference: ((11,559,607 - 11,269,112) / 11,559,607) * 100 ≈ 2.51%
Pennsylvania
Presidential Votes: 7,025,367
Senate Votes: 6,953,319
Percentage Difference: ((7,025,367 - 6,953,319) / 7,025,367) * 100 ≈ 1.03%
Virginia
Presidential Votes: 4,482,075
Senate Votes: 4,436,419
Percentage Difference: ((4,482,075 - 4,436,419) / 4,482,075) * 100 ≈ 1.02%
Ohio
Presidential Votes: 5,647,668
Senate Votes: 5,585,865
Percentage Difference: ((5,647,668 - 5,585,865) / 5,647,668) * 100 ≈ 1.09%
As you can see, the swing states did NOT have a greater %age difference in top of the ticket and down ballot. In fact, it's California (blue state) that has the greatest discrepancy and Wisconsin (swing state) the lowest.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-Senate/
Sympthsical
(10,180 posts)Glad to see you did.
soandso
(1,105 posts)I try to make a habit of checking everything if it's significant enough to bother. I do the same with news articles and claims that they make.
bucolic_frolic
(46,939 posts)soandso
(1,105 posts)how many people only voted in the presidential race vs down ballot races, in a particular state. There's been some claims that swing states had zillions of ballots only voting for president and nothing else and that that's fishy, indicating fraud. So, I checked.
onenote
(44,582 posts)It happens every four years that some number of voters cast a ballot for president and leave the rest of the ballot blank. The percentage of voters doing that in 2024 in the swing states is not out of line with the percentage doing it in non-swing states. It's also not out of line with the percentage doing it in 2020. For example, the percentage in Arizona in 2024 is almost identical to the percentage in 2020.
soandso
(1,105 posts)is that a number of people (probably not midterm and primary voters) are motivated by the general presidential race and just want to be heard/counted in that.
onenote
(44,582 posts)much about.
soandso
(1,105 posts)in that I would rather someone not vote if they don't know who or what they're voting for. In that way, it may be the intelligent choice.
A lot of people simply are not into politics but can't help but be aware of the presidential race since it's in our faces so much. They may know a lot about Harris and Trump but the guy running for drain commissioner, not so much.
Silent Type
(6,597 posts)Igel
(36,075 posts)To stop protecting those in "error".
Ahem.
A lot of folk in late 2004 suffered from "ED"--election denialism.
tritsofme
(18,447 posts)soandso
(1,105 posts)flipping votes from Harris to Trump. I'm unable to check that claim.
tritsofme
(18,447 posts)HereForTheParty
(94 posts)Not up to you.
JanMichael
(25,222 posts)Takket
(22,506 posts)I have been very disheartened watching some DUers post the exact same conspiracy theories we saw drumpf pushing 4 years ago, from bloggers who are more upset Harris lost than they are interested in what really happened.
I hope an injection of facts gets people to focus on what they can do to help rather than inventing excuses.
soandso
(1,105 posts)I just had to verify it for myself (a good habit). A lot of claims have been made and that one was actually something I could check.
DUers not posting the same conspiracy theories as the GOPs in 2020. Theirs were not credible because of who they were claiming did the vote rigging. Wild claims. The GOP has manipulated votes in the past i.e., the 2004 election. They have also engaged in conspiracies to prevent Dem presidents from winning (Nixon - interfering in Johnson's Vietnam peace talks, Reagan interfering with the hostage negotiations during Carter's campaign). The possibility for computer rigging is real and we should always seek to verify the results. If we did, then people Dems or GOPs wouldn't be as suspicious. We have a faith based voting system because the results are rarely verified by comparing hand counts of ballots with the computer vote totals.
Takket
(22,506 posts)not buying it, comrade.
Especially since "hand counting ballots" has been debunked as a right wing tactic designed to do the exact opposite of ensuring election accuracy, to sew lack of confidence in the system
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-judge-blocks-election-rule-requiring-hand-counting-of-ballots/
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)Choosing presidential votes vs senate votes and using the percentage difference is meaningless.
Providing meaningless data like this appears to be nothing ore than a diversion from the truth.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)is defined as a ballot with a Presidential vote only and no other votes, then showing the percentage of Presidental ballots that don't have a Senate vote is exactly how you determine the number/percentage of bullet ballots.
It's pretty basic math.
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)The Senate race was equally important.
The president and senate race each had more votes than the combined House votes.
The ops analysis is meaningless. A recount is definitely warranted.
I am amazed that some many Democrats here just want to give up
wonder why?
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)A bullet ballot is a ballot that has ONLY a Presidential vote and no others - no Senate, no House, no ballot questions/intiatives.
When there are 3,378,651 Presidental votes and 3,337,566 Senate votes, the maximum number of bullet ballots is 41,085.
For a 7% bullet ballot rate, that number would need to be 123,540 bullet ballots.
Doing math and proving the numbers is not giving up, it's accepting basic math.
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)The so-called bullet ballot could include the Senate race to.
I am always amazed how Dems are so quick to give up.
VP Harris could easily call for a recount. It would show Democrats that 'trust but verify' is a good policy.
onenote
(44,582 posts)It's a ballot in which the voter only casts a vote in one of the contests on that ballot. It is common for a number of voters to limit their voting to just the presidential race and to ignore all of the other races on the ballot.
In Pennsylvania, there were a total of 7,022,625 votes cast for president and only 69,527,722 in the Senate race. That means that the number of bullet ballots in the presidential race could not exceed 70,903 or around 1 percent. There might be some bullet ballots in the senate race -- voters who only cast a vote in the Senate contest and not any other contest, including the presidential contest. But even if there are, it wouldn't change the maximum number of bullet ballots that could have been cast in the Presidential race.
BTW, the number of presidential ballots cast in Pennsylvania in 2020 was 108,687 -- or around 1.57 percent - more than the number cast in the only other statewide race that year. Does that mean that Biden's victory in Pennsylvania in 2020 is suspect? Of course not.
It really is just simple math.
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)Oh, we can only steal one race so let it be the presidency - we have to stick with the definition that the 'bullet ballot' only applies to one race.
Ridiculous...
tritsofme
(18,447 posts)Why not give themselves a little more cushion in the House? Didnt want to be greedy? lol
Its actually quite interesting to watch these election denial conspiracy theories morph in real time.
EdmondDantes_
(46 posts)So it's absolutely correct to use that definition to demonstrate that his "evidence" is nonsense. That and it's the definition of the term.
onenote
(44,582 posts)From his letter:
North Carolina is the most extreme. The public results indicate over 350K voters cast a ballot for Trump and no other race making up over 11% of Trumps voters in NC drop off votes or bullet ballots.
The problem is that his claim of 350,000 bullet ballots -- ballots for Trump and no other races is resoundingly debunked by the fact that difference between the number of votes in the presidential race and the governor's race is nowhere near 350,000.
And whether you intended to do so or not, you point out another flaw in Spoonamore bullet ballot allegation: if you were going to manufacture 350,000 fake ballots for president why would you make them bullet ballots? Why not include a vote for another republican candidate? Wouldn't that be less suspicious? Did the alleged manufacturers of these alleged ballots not want to flip the North Carolina governor's race, or the Senate races in in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona -- all states where Spoonamore claims were impacted by bullet ballots -- and all states in which the actual numbers thoroughly debunk any such claim.
reACTIONary
(6,007 posts)... a vote for a Senate candidate. That is why it is alleged to be "suspicious".
The election was free and fair. We have to focus on reality and stop with these parinoid CT grievance fantasies.
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)reACTIONary
(6,007 posts)..... all of this "bullet ballet" brew-ha-ha is not just factually wrong, it also doesn't comport with what we would expect from a "bad guy". It's just plain old bullshit.
Every election there are always all sorts of so called "statistical anomalies" brought up some among the losers that are said to be suspicious or outright prove a "rigged" election. It's all bullsit.
The election was free and fair. It's a time for serious reflection and analysis, not CT bullshit.
reACTIONary
(6,007 posts)... here is an article I found interesting:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/16/sherrod-brown-democrats-00189956
Ms. Toad
(35,505 posts)soandso
(1,105 posts)Go compile the numbers. You can do that at decision desk, too.
tritsofme
(18,447 posts)But I know some folks like to play pretend
I honestly almost thought you wrote that in jest or as satire or something.
Meaningless data? Get real. How would YOU begin checking?
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)These are legitimate questions for you.
soandso
(1,105 posts)Nobody has to be a mathematician or election specialist to look at what's posted online.
Takket
(22,506 posts)And do you think such people have looked at the election numbers?
SnoopDog
(2,457 posts)Has the Democratic Party Leadership issued any plan to fight the repubs? I haven't received any such plan.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)...when the average is usually less than 1%
I know people will ask me to prove it but I can only refer you to this interview with Thom Hartman...
(Spoonamore interview starts around 2:15)
https://m.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)prove that the states didn't report 5% & 7% bullet ballots.
Unless you think the state election officials are providing one set of numbers to the public and a different set of numbers to Spoonamore. And if that's the case, then Spoonamore should provide the numbers to the public and call out the state election officials.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)The OP show ALL Presidential and Senate vote numbers when Spoonamore is clearly and obvioysly speaking about trump and red down ballot votes:
Let's just take the real numbers from the site provided in the OP for Arizona (which Spoonamore specifically mentions along with Nevada)...
Arizona
trump (President) 1,764,862
lake (Senate) 1,591,318
((1,764,862 - 1,591,318) / 1,764,862 * 100 = 9.83%
Edit to add: red vote numbers from the same source as OP: https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/Arizona/
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)And you're saying it's almost 10%, so obviously the way you calculated it isn't the way he's calculating.
A bullet ballot, per all of the Spoonamore acolytes, is a ballot in which only a Presidential vote was recorded on the ballot - nothing else - no Senate, no House, no ballot question.
All your numbers show is that 173,544 people who voted for Trump didn't vote for Lake. But since the overall delta for the state of Arizona between the Presidential race and the Senate race is only 41,085, then a whole bunch of voters (132,459, to be exact) voted for Trump for President, and then someone other than Lake for Senate.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)tritsofme
(18,447 posts)All you have found evidence of is ticket splitting
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)And a split ticket is, by definition, not a bullet ballot.
Takket
(22,506 posts)tritsofme
(18,447 posts)If the total difference in vote casts between the presidential and Senate race is only around 40k, this theory is literally impossible.
soandso
(1,105 posts)which happens in every election. It does NOT show 9.83% of people who voted for Trump voted in no other races because you and Spoonamore do not have access to those ballots.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)Let's find out by recounting.
soandso
(1,105 posts)You and Spoonamore have. A recount will also not provide the information you and he are making claims about.
Abnredleg
(909 posts)Lake was not a popular candidate. Same thing happened in NC - lots of people voted for both Trump and Stein. Same thing happened in MI, WI, and NV.
Igel
(36,075 posts)That strikes me as being "in error as far as the truth is concerned."
tritsofme
(18,447 posts)Providing zero evidence of his fantastical claims.
And just ignore the numbers in the OP
because you dont like them. This would be funnier if it wasnt so pathetic.
Response to tritsofme (Reply #18)
Post removed
tritsofme
(18,447 posts)Whether it happens to be pillows or spoons.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)onenote
(44,582 posts)For the umpteenth time, a bullet ballot is a ballot in which the voter cast a vote in one race and ignored all the other contest on the ballot. All of them. So the number of bullet ballots in the presidential race in any state cannot be larger than the total number of ballots cast in any other state-wide race on the ballot, such as Senate or Governor. It's just simple math.
Spoonamore could not be more clear in how he defines a bullet ballot, and it is not how you are trying to define it. From one of his letters:
"North Carolina is the most extreme. The public results indicate over 350K voters cast a ballot for Trump and no other race making up over 11% of Trumps voters in NC drop off votes or bullet ballots.
Of course, Spoonamore has absolutely no way to know how many bullet ballots were cast in North Carolina let alone how many were for Trump alone. By his analysis, you would have to subtract 350,000 votes from Trump, not add any to Harris so that the total number of votes cast in the presidential race was 5,328,667 while the total number of votes in the governor's race would still be 5,590,469. The idea that more than 260,000 voters cast ballots in the Governor's race but not in the Presidential race is ludicrous.
muriel_volestrangler
(102,456 posts)soandso
(1,105 posts)you actually go and verify the numbers like I did?
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)paleotn
(19,165 posts)I thought it strange too but the data isn't backing it up. Sorry.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)...I noticed that Spoonamore said "I beginning to think the bullet ballots aren't there".
paleotn
(19,165 posts)What I do know is Elmo literally paid a bunch of people to register and vote. Doubt those motivated by such would spend a whole lot of time perusing the city alderman race way down the ballot. Elmo should be prosecuted for that as it's patently illegal. But he won't. Thanks, Merrick.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,460 posts)Thanks for the evidence-based reality check.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(18,460 posts)Imagine if those single candidate voters had voted down ballot races
No Baldwin, Gallego, Stein or other Dems would have been elected.
soandso
(1,105 posts)If, say, Arizona had some huge excess of "bullet ballots" (and they don't), you'd think the Trump peeps would have included Kari Lake.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)if it were actually true.
soandso
(1,105 posts)You and Spoonamore do not have access to the ballots. You don't know how many people voted for Harris and no one else, Trump and no one else, or how many split their tickets and how. You would have to have access to the ballots to get that information. Trump did very well with Hispanic men who could have easily voted for Trump and Gallego.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)...makes you position unprovable also, right?
We need to do recounts.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)to do basic math.
41,085 does not (and cannot be made to) equal to 123,540.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)soandso
(1,105 posts)I posted the percentage difference in presidential and senate votes in several states, all proved with the actual numbers. You, OTOH, keep making claims that require detailed audits (not recounts) of ballots you and and spoon guy don't have access to.
ERW
(2 posts)Close races don't need huge numbers of manipulated votes. They just need a few to make it believable.
and some races may be recounted because they were so close.
Define "manipulated" votes. Do you mean fake/inelligible/dead/whatever voters or what?
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)The claim is that RED ballots have a large percentage of President only ballots and when I did the math in post #26 it turns out Spoonamore is right.
soandso
(1,105 posts)Because you don't have access to ballots that voted for Trump but not anyone else, just as you don't access to ballots that voted for Kamala and no one else or ballots that skipped the top of the ticket and voted for other candidates. IOW, you didn't "do the math".
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)I did the same math as the OP and used the same source for the vote numbers.
I took the Pres. vote total, subtracted the Senate total, just as you did.
Zeitghost
(4,539 posts)In order to account for split ticket voting, you need to include all votes in a race, not just one party.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)You simply proved that 132,459 people who voted for Trump didn't vote for Lake, but they did record a Senate vote.
Which means it's not a bullet ballot.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)SickOfTheOnePct
(7,323 posts)Not everyone votes a straight ticket.
For there to be a 7% bullet ballot rate in Arizona, looking at only Trump votes, there would need to be 123,540 ballots that voted for Trump only, and no other down ballot races.
1,764,862 * .07 = 123,540
There were only 41,085 ballots that had only a President vote (doesn't matter which party).
There is no way to turn 41,085 into 123,540 no matter how hard you try.
jimfields33
(18,759 posts)nominee. This happens every election.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)jimfields33
(18,759 posts)I agree. But voted for our democratic candidate. But obviously some felt going full vote on green was important to them. Stein was an after thought this election. Her damage was in 2016.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)tritsofme
(18,447 posts)At least you seem to have backed away from the magic bullet ballot?
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)I've watched the Spoonamore interview again and at one point he says "I'm beginning to think the bullet ballots aren't there".
jimfields33
(18,759 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(102,456 posts)They may have taken a look at Lake and thought "wow, she's just crazy". They are anti-Democrat, however, and so they gave the Green their senatorial vote. And that means they were not a "bullet ballot" voter. They are a significant indicator that Spoonamore is talking out of his behind.
Igel
(36,075 posts)The claim is that there are a lot of people who voted for Trump but did not vote for specific other (R) candidates and the difference between the two--which nobody could ever vote differently on--is proof of single-vote ballots.
That's very different from saying they didn't vote for *any* other candidate. In fact, to show that a significant number of people *did* split the tickets is strong counterevidence.
So, as a thought experiment--purely imaginary, let's magine if you had a state in which the (D) Senate candidate got more votes than Harris.
Say, maybe, Arizona:
Gallego (D) 1,671,985
Harris (D) 1,578,856
Obviously, if such a thing happened, that would entail certain far-out possibilities. Maybe the Harris campaign was subverted and provided, on the QT, 90,000 ballots that simply could not be marked for Harris. Or maybe Gallego's folk provided bullet ballots to replace real ballots! Uh-oh. Because we have to assume nobody could vote against Harris and for Gallego--that's simply impossible.
Except those are the results from https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/races/arizona-president-all-parties-general-election (and the Senate tab at that site). So it's not a thought experiment, it's just counterevidence that Must Not Be Named.
Think. Again.
(17,824 posts)You're saying that people voted for trump AND Gallego and/or Quintana, but not lake?
wanderer54
(50 posts)Lake is not popular So some Trump voters voted for the Democratic cantidate and some voted for the Green Party.
Cirsium
(777 posts)Good job, well done. Thanks for that.
What is driving this? Are right wingers feeding this crap into social media? It just goes on and on.
There are all sorts of ways that Republicans suprress the vote and distort the information landscape and it has been going on for years. There is no need to make stuff up.
soandso
(1,105 posts)It's the left who can't fathom the outcome, just as the Trumpers couldn't in 2020. Then there are people like Thom Hartman, who people give credibility, questioning the results.
There's nothing wrong with questioning but making assertions without proof is useless. What I looked up was easy. Claims about software with malicious code and Starlink counting votes are something else. I think the Starlink stuff was quickly debunked and explained how it was (barely) used but the software stuff requires experts. The Trump campaign made just about all the same assertions and ran into the same problems when it came to software because it's so hard to prove and requires access which they didn't have, though I think they tried. Ironically, some Democrats going down this road about fraud has sparked Republicans saying the millions of fewer votes for Harris over what Biden got, in 2020, proves their own claims that the 81 million contained a bunch of fraudulent votes (which they never proved, either).
Cirsium
(777 posts)Yes, Democrats are spreading it. But are bad actors from the right fanning the flames?
soandso
(1,105 posts)since they won. They haven't asked for a recount, in Michigan, where the Dem candidate won the senate by just .4%/about 20K votes. Thom Hartmann is certainly fanning the flames along with some posters here. I don't find it too weird, though. People want to win.
Cirsium
(777 posts)You could be right. I know you defended Twitter recently, so you may not be able to imagine that we are being gamed on social media. Have you ever heard of a "false flag" operation?
Here is how that might work. A fake story is generated and disseminated from a troll farm. Democrats bite on it and start spreading it. It is then proved false and Democrats look ridiculous. Any and all subsequent charges against the Republicans, no matter whether they are true or not , are dismissed. Meanwhile the actual voter suppression being done by the Republicans is buried.
You think that just because the Republicans won they are not still working against us 24/7?
soandso
(1,105 posts)Of course, I know what a false flag is. What you're talking about is a disinfo campaign which is not the same thing. Do you think Thom Hartmann and this Spoon guy are picking this stuff up from sus accounts on Tiktok and amplifying it or might they have just jumped to an unfounded conclusion? The poster Think_Again came back to this thread and said the spoonster has recanted and now thinks there were not an unusual number of "ballot ballots". That kind of looks like he may simply have mistaken and was overly zealous. The other stuff about software being messed with may still be something he's alleging but I don't know.
And, yeah, I defended freedom of speech which you oppose.
If you have some social media accounts that you are suspicious of being involved in a disinfo campaign, share what you have. Currently, with this bullet ballot thing, I'm not seeing anything nefarious, just some jumping the gun and incorrect assumptions not backed up by data.
Maeve
(42,954 posts)Ohio....the number of people who ask "Do i have to vote all this?" always surprises me. The low-info voters are there for one race. Period
I guess you tell them to vote on what they want to? Like I previously said, I'd rather people not vote when they aren't informed so there's that. We don't want people just randomly checking shit off, lol.