The Fourth Turning

[Kablooie]

The Fourth Turning is part of a cyclical view of history proposed by William Strauss and
Neil Howe in 1997. Each cycle lasts about 80-100 years and consists of four ~20-25 year
periods called "turnings".
The current cycle's turnings were:
High: Post-WWII era (1946-1964)
Awakening: Mid-1960s to early 1980s
Unraveling: Mid-1980s to mid-2000s
Crisis (Fourth Turning): 2008 to ~2030

Here are the key points about the current Fourth Turning:

Timing of the Current Fourth Turning
The Fourth Turning is believed to have started around 2008 and is expected to last until
approximately 2030.
Specifically:
- It likely began with the Great Recession of 2007-2009
- Some sources pinpoint 2008 as the start
- It is predicted to last until around 2027-2030
This means we are currently in the middle of the Fourth Turning crisis period.

Characteristics of the Current Fourth Turning
The current Fourth Turning is characterized by:
- Increased urgency, risk, and uncertainty
- Economic and institutional upheaval in the first half
- Potential for major societal realignment and rebuilding in the second half
- Rising autocracy and populism
- Hyper-partisan politics similar to the period between 1929-1945

Potential Outcomes
While the specific events can't be predicted, the authors suggest the Fourth Turning could lead to:
- Major economic restructuring
- Potential internal conflict or partial secession in the US
- Possible global armed conflict
- Significant societal and institutional changes
It's important to note that while these cycles provide a framework for understanding
historical patterns, they don't determine exact events. The authors emphasize that we can
learn from past cycles to better prepare for and navigate the current period of change.

[ancianita]

1. Thanks for this, Kablooie. Generational theory is interesting and important to consider.

[Jilly_in_VA]

2. Okay, so what's the Fifth?

Assuming anyone survives the Fourth, that is....! I have grandchildren and I'd like to know what their future holds. I won't be around then, but it would be nice to know...

[Kablooie]

3. It cycles back to the first turning.

The theory suggests that these cycles have repeated throughout Anglo-American history for about five centuries.
The timing is based on when a new generation takes control, approximately every 20 years.
It cycles and starts again when the oldest generation dies out, after about 80 years.

Each cycle is divided into four distinct 20-25 year periods, called "turnings":
First Turning (High): A post-crisis era of stability, strong institutions, and weak individualism.
Second Turning (Awakening): A period of spiritual upheaval and rebellion against established values.
Third Turning (Unraveling): An era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.
Fourth Turning (Crisis): A period of major upheaval and societal transformation.

Turnings in American history include:
The Revolutionary War (catalyzed by the 1773 Boston Tea Party)
The Civil War (preceded by John Brown's raid in 1859)
The Great Depression and World War II (following the 1929 stock market crash)

After WWII:
The First Turning: The High (1946-1964)
This period, known as the "American High," began after World War II and lasted until the assassination of John F. Kennedy. It was characterized by:
Strong institutions and a united sense of direction
Weaker individualism and greater social conformity
Confidence in shared societal goals
Economic prosperity and the establishment of a new world order
This era spanned the presidencies of Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy.
The Second Turning: The Awakening (1964-1984)
Often referred to as the "Consciousness Revolution," this period stretched from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s.
Key features included:
Challenges to established institutions
Focus on personal and spiritual autonomy
Youth activism and counterculture movements
Shift towards self-awareness and authenticity
This turning saw the campus revolts of the 1960s and extended to the tax revolts of the early 1980s.
The Third Turning: The Unraveling (1984-2008)
Known as the "Culture Wars," this period began in the mid-1980s and lasted until the late 2000s. Characteristics of this era were:
Weakening and distrust of institutions
Strong individualism
Social atomization
Long economic boom coupled with cultural conflicts
This turning started with Reagan's "Morning in America" and continued through the 1990s and early 2000s.
The Fourth Turning: The Crisis (2008-present)
We are currently in this phase, which began around 2008 with the financial crisis. Key aspects include:
Upheaval and potential for major conflicts
Destruction and rebuilding of institutions
Perceived threats to national survival
Potential for significant societal changes
This turning is expected to last until the mid-2030s.

[SamKnause]

4. Thanks for the post.

[usonian]

5. People like prophesies.

But I need basis in fact.


"The 500 Year Delta" explores how three change waves hit at the same time. About year 2000.

[Maeve]

6. Currently reading the two books about this

Yes, the world flows in cycles. Yes, we appear to be in the Crisis cycle. Hang on, y'all.
Solid enough theory; not sure the prediction phase holds.