Disillusion of the Union
I'm going to lay out some thoughts here that I suspect people may argue with. I'm not giving right-wing talking points, this has come from nearly fifty years of watching politics in this country, and while I hope I'm wrong, I don't think I am.
1. We are in a slow motion Civil War (that's about to heat up). If you've ever watch cell meiosis occur, you're seeing the same phenomenon taking place in the body politic. In the 1950s, the two major political parties were pretty balanced -- the Democrats were a little more pro-labor, the Republicans a little more pro-business, but there was enough overlap that both parties could support a left and right wing and a moderate center. Today, on the other hand, the parties are completely polarized. The house is divided, and it's beginning to crumble. People are now moving from or to states on the basis not of work or lifestyle but increasingly of politics, especially as it is becoming easier and easier to work remotely.
2. One consequence of this is that those states which are mostly urban are becoming more "progressive" where as those states with relatively few urban spots are becoming more regressive over time. This was very evident to me in this election, where a comparatively small minority of the population in rural areas ends up having a very disproportionate impact politically because land does vote via gerrymandering.
3. Trump was ... inevitable. What differentiates Trump from almost everyone else is that he does not abide by the rules. He is by definition a criminal, but he's also found that with enough money and intimidation, he can break things with impunity. He's also learned the lesson that all rich people learn if they want to stay rich - you never use your own money. However, Trump is also on his revenge tour. He is going to get his revenge on everyone who he believes has slighted him. In a way, this is probably for the best, because a more dispassionate person would figure out how to lock in power while seemingly satisfying the masses. Trump is going to go in as a wrecking ball, which is what his handlers want, but I think that his various advisors (most notably Bannon and Musk) are going to run afoul of him quickly before he can do all that much damage. This may be about the time that they 25/4 Trump, assuming he doesn't get taken out by a drone that mysteriously happens to penetrate presidential airspace.
4. If neither of these things happen, the next most likely will be that the country is going to rupture into several different regions, probably focused around the major municipalities - New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Houston, San Francisco and maybe Seattle and Denver. Oddly enough, I don't think it's going to go Red vs. Blue. Why? The problem we face right now is that we are reaching a stage where megapoli, rather than states, are driving political divisions. In Washington State, the top 5 counties account for 68% of the population, and this number is increasing (the state overall is growing, but the metropolitan counties are growing much faster.
Not surprisingly, the West Coast (specifically along the I5 Cooridor) is the home of the Resistance to Trump, along with the Acela line cities (Alexandria, VA to Boston, MA) and Chicago. They will increasingly not recognize the authority of Trump as president, and it is also increasingly likely that Trump will send troops to "pacify" these cities. Where will those troops come from? More than likely the Southeast and Texas. I wouldn't be surprised if they are also "unidentified" (thinking back to Portland) and may end up being a mix of military troops and ICE. At this point, I expect that the governors will call out their national guard units and mobilize police. At that point we are in an undeclared Civil War.
Trump has made it clear that he's going to start purging military ranks with his "review board". If he carries this out, then you will end up seeing O7 and above ranks having to choose between their oath to the constitution and their oath to Trump. Some will choose Trump, some will choose the Constitution with Trump as the duly elected president, some will retire and go home ... where I suspect they will be hired by the various state national guard units.
The question ultimately is going to come down to whether Trump can actually staff up the military, or if he's going to go the route of working with hired contractors (Blackwater, etc., being the most glaringly obvious). I suspect he'll do the latter - it fits in with his overall fear of and disrespective of the military.
This isn't going to be a set-piece war. I think once he goes down that path, the United States as we know it is dead.
Again, I hope I'm wrong. I didn't think it possible that Trump would get back in the White House, though, and I cannot see a scenario where in four years time he will peacefully leave.
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