Recession odds are rising

[CitizenZero]

CNN
—
The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs.

The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously

Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.

While Goldman Sachs still expects the US economy to avoid a downturn, other forecasters think it’s more of a 50/50 call. This is Goldman’s highest recession probability since the regional banking crisis two years ago. The catalyst now is the shock from President Donald Trump’s trade war, which is set to intensify this week.

Goldman Sachs blamed the “sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of these policies,” the bank’s economists wrote in the report.

Entire article at the link--

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/31/business/recession-tariffs-goldman-sachs/index.html

[unblock]

1. From what I'm seeing, we're already in a contraction, as of mid-to-late February.

It's possible q1 will coming barely positive overall on the relative strength of January's growth, but things turned in February, and March was almost surely negative.

Then it becomes more a matter of exactly how one defines "recession". Terminology aside, I don't see Donnie doing anything to help, in fact it sounds like he's escalating his tariff idiocy.

Do I don't see how q2 gets any better.

[Skittles]

2. they will rise as long as President Musk and his lapdog Trump are "in charge"

what a fucking SHIT SHOW

[Karasu]

3. More like 100% guaranteed. This dumbfuck is throwing around new tariffs every fucking week now, with no end in sight.

[moniss]

4. I'm noticing some "pre-tariff"

buying but I am also seeing some things that are normally well in stock are perhaps being held back waiting to see if the scarcity can drive the demand/price factor high enough to cover the tariffs.

[CitizenZero]

5. Goldman Sachs

I think Goldman Sachs is being very conservative in their forecasting. I think that a recession is highly probable at this point. But even if the hyper cautious Goldman Sachs is upping the forecast of their probability of a recession, it is a strong indicator that there is a problem.