Any Economists Predicting Krasnov's 1st Quarter GDP

[gab13by13]

It won't be negative, and I only had Econ 101, but if we get honest numbers, I bet the 1st quarter GDP will be around 0.3%.

[marble falls]

1. An increase made up of inflation.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. I'm not an economist

I never had Econ 101, self-taught.

I think it will be higher than 0.3, higher than 1.5, pretty close to recent quarters, because tariff taxes and Federal firings have only begun to nibble let alone bite.

Uncertainty has reduced economic activity, but companies rushing to beat tariff taxes have bumped up activity some.

Second quarter will begin to tell the tale.

The Chicago Business Barometer™ advanced 2.1 points to 47.6 in March. This is the third consecutive monthly gain, taking the index to the highest level since November 2023, though it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth successive month.

The increase was largely driven by a rise in Production, with smaller increases in Employment, Order Backlogs and New Orders also contributing whilst Supplier Deliveries declined.

March special question asked: "With potential tariff increases in the coming months, is your business taking any of the following precautions/considerations?" Majority 35% answered "Increasing Prices", 25% responded "Considering New Suppliers" and "Increasing Inventories", with 18% of respondents reporting "Looking into On-Shoring". 4% of respondents also reported "Increasing Employment Levels" and "Other".

[Johonny]

3. I think company guidance in their finacial

Reports will be the marker for 1st qrt results. I assume most companies to be bearish on their prospects for the rest of 2025.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Currently, most companies are slightly bullish, I think, but many are beginning to acknowledge recession risks. . . nt