I smell a rat

[Pototan]

I had posted previously that the tariff moves by Trump was a way of manipulating the stock market for people in the know. Today (Tuesday morning at 11:10 AM EDT) the market turned from down about 1% across the board to all green.

The news is that Trump didn't know exactly what tariffs would be but will be announced tomorrow at 4:00 PM. Yet somehow, a very negative market has turned positive for no reason. I think I know the reason. The tariffs will be a less than expected nothing burger.

Maybe I'm correct or maybe not, but that's my gut feeling.

[BOSSHOG]

1. Trumps busy

Ruining lives, hurting businesses, pissing off our allies because he doesn’t know how to do the right thing. Never has. Your guess is as good as any My Friend.

[Bluethroughu]

2. The billionaires are insider trading.

[bluestarone]

3. Greedy bastards NEVER get enough money

NEVER!

[Bluethroughu]

4. As one of the Koch brothers said, "I only want my fair share, and that's everything".

[CincyDem]

5. Yesterday (3/31) was the close of the quarter.

Not saying there isn’t a rat but it’s not uncommon for the market to reverse at the beginning of a quarter.

The logic (if that exists in the market) is that by the time folks get their statements with the bad news from the quarter, it’s already bounced.

Who knows. When I think about the market I’m reminded of Yoggi Berra’s quote “the future ain’t what it used to be”. Come to think of it…that’s true of a lot of things these days.

[Pototan]

6. Ya, but a major reversal

2 hours into the trading day?

Look, there's a few ways of looking at this and we don't have the inside knowledge to know the exact reason. Trump, or his closest aides leak out misinformation, forcing the market up after a drop from yesterday. Then, short the market and Trump announces huge, broad tariffs and the market tanks tomorrow.

It just seems strange that people who know so much about investments would let this up and down uncertainty to continue unless they had the inside information from day to day.

[CincyDem]

7. Respectfully...yeah, 2 hours into the trading day.

The market is up on the open 0.3-0.4% depending on what index you look at. That’s not a big move, especially when mega-banks are repositioning billions…with or without inside info.

S&P futures are up 26 points. On average they have moved about 100 point in a day over the past 14 days.

Money that moves a market 1% or more in a day isn’t “trading” on inside tips. They’re “investing” on long term trends. IMHO, the long term economic trend has weakened over that quarter and that’s reflected in the 10% drop through the quarter.

Again imho, based on daily market watching, volatility is up since inauguration and that’s why traders love Trump. Traders are like little swift boats, they can turn in a dime…in and out at will. But big market moving money is like a battleship…doesn’t react to daily (even weekly) shit because they aren’t nimble enough. Trump volatility is within their margin of wobble.

I’m sure there are insiders making money on it but the market moving dollars are same as they’ve ever been.

[Vinca]

8. I'll be surprised if he actually goes through with the tariffs. I suspect it's stock manipulation and little more.

He'll tap dance around a bit and bloviate, but in the end it'll just be another killing in the stock market for the monied.

[Emile]

9. Volatility ruins the day.

[Scrivener7]

10. He will impose them and retract them in days, if it even takes that long.

[617Blue]

11. Agree. Liberation Day will be forgotten by Friday.