Wisconsin Republicans Have a Turnout Problem

[applegrove]

Wisconsin Republicans Have a Turnout Problem

April 1, 2025 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 71 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/04/01/wisconsin-republicans-have-a-turnout-problem/

"SNIP..........

Split Ticket: “Although we will not be releasing a model for this race, the early vote data we have extensively analyzed and modeled suggests Democratic-aligned liberal judge Susan Crawford is a clear favorite to win this election.”

“While the GOP-aligned conservative Brad Schimel certainly could pull off an upset (and it would be foolish to rule him out this early), the early vote suggests that this would be a monumental feat for him, and he is staring down the barrel of an immense deficit that he is unlikely to overturn on election day.”

“The early vote data shows that even relative to 2024, Democrats are significantly more likely to show up than Republicans are — and in a state that Donald Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2024, this makes the GOP’s job much harder.”

............SNIP"

[GreenWave]

1. Hey Musk, the prophecy said, Money can't buy you love!"

[thomski64]

3. ..it profiteth a man naught if he shall..

..gain the whole World, if he shall lose his immortal soul...

[GreenWave]

7. Sheer profundity!

[Tribetime]

22. Right stick that million up his ass

[karynnj]

2. I hate the timing of this. No one in WI should take this as an excuse not to vote

I think both sides have made this an existential election. It actually does change who has the majority of the WI Supreme Court .. and I would bet that most people know how that power was used when the Republicans had it recently.

I sincerely hope that Musk underestimated how disliked he is and that he is more of a negative than his money for ads, GOTV etc is. Not to mention, I hope bringing people in from places like Texas for GOTV triggers some " not from here".

[elocs]

12. Too often it's too many Democrats who get complacent & overconfident about elections.

In my over 50 years of voting I've turned out to vote in nearly every election I could and always for the Democratic or Liberal candidate even when I was sure they would win.
We got to be where we are now because too many of us on the Left had not been vigilant in protecting our democracy because we looked upon the maga crowd and Trump as a joke with their constant whining about stolen election but they've distracted us with that complaint while these past 4 years they have plotted and planned how to steal our democracy.
And here we are. Sadly, even if we recover our democracy, America will never be the same again.

[MadameButterfly]

38. If we recover our democracy, maybe America will be better

We'll have learned a lot. Voters of all stripes will have learned a lot. The pendulum may swing back.

Look what Germany became after WWII.

Maybe people won't be fooled so easily and compassion will rule.

[bdamomma]

43. Yes

I hope that pendulum will swing back so hard it will hit that minority cult off the charts.

Elon/ and that SF felon must get their "just deserts".

[gab13by13]

4. The turnout problem can be adjusted

with the ballot tabulation machines. So they say.

[Permanut]

26. "Adjusted".. wimk, wink, nudge, nudge.

[MadameButterfly]

39. Thats my worry

Where will Elon and his people be while the votes are being counted?

[Maru Kitteh]

44. Conspiracy theories are mostly self-soothing mechanisms

Which would be fine, but they can be very counterproductive and even depress turnout. Why should I vote if everyone is saying the vote tabulation is rigged? Why should a party engage in any self-examination after losing an election if they never admit a loss?


Good thing the conspiracy theorists were wrong tonight, too.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

5. I hope that these projections are correct

[uponit7771]

6. Not if starlink is connected to systems, jus sayin

[Abnredleg]

8. But they weren't and aren't/nt

[tintinvotes]

30. According to this they were the reason vote counting went so quickly in 2024

https://abc30.com/post/tulare-county-sees-larger-voter-turnout-during-2024-presidential-election/15519472/

[Abnredleg]

33. It was used for registration

The clerk has stated that the voting machines weren't connected to the Internet, which is against the law in California.

[tintinvotes]

36. Cab you post a link from a credible source?

Because this article says "Our laptops and our connectivity, that wkd really well. In 2020 a lot of problems we experienced were due to slow connectivity at our polling places. We purchased Starlink for our sites, so as far as connectivity that wkd awesome", says Michelle Baldwin. She added early technical difficulties were quickly fixed and didn't impact vote tabulation. Call me crazy but Elon's Starlink should have no business being involved in our polling stations.

[Abnredleg]

37. Here you go

https://abc30.com/post/starlink-system-is-not-connected-voting-machines-tulare-county-elections-office-says/15541598/

We discussed this all in detail right after the election.

[MadameButterfly]

40. I still don't like Starlink or Elon anywhere near our voting system

in any capacity. Would you allow a highly partisan crook to manage voter rolls just because the vote tabulation isn't connected to the internet? No, you would choose a person who hasn't just cancelled a dozen investigations into themselves, and who isn't brazenly partisan.

Would you say its ok that a fox is hanging around the chicken coop because he isn't IN the chicken coop? No you'd get it as far away as possible.

He has made himself ineligible for anything to do with elections.

[Abnredleg]

42. I'm not disagreeing with you/nt

[BComplex]

23. Exactly! Here comes the russian algorithm!

Yet again.

[Self Esteem]

9. Republicans have had a turnout problem in a lot of offcycle elections.

It's why it was utterly stupid to look at all the special elections Republicans were losing prior to the November election and using that proof of some shifting tide that would wipe out Trump and Republicans in November.

So many people got caught up in those special election results and they really didn't mean much. And tonight's election won't, either.

Democrats have done exceptionally well in low-turnout races and Republicans seem to be doing much better when turnout is higher. It's why I dismissed everyone last year who said high turnout was good for Democrats. It's not. Democrats' strength is with high-propensity voters and their weakness is with low-propensity voters, as we saw in 2024. Those voters typically stay home on these special elections and come out for the major ones.

The lower the turnout the more likely the Democrats are to win.

[Maru Kitteh]

16. There is much to think about in this post. I have noticed this trend but not

seen it framed from this perspective. There are so many variables at play to consider and we are running out of time.

[W_HAMILTON]

17. Yes, it will mean much. Because we won't have another "major" election for almost four years from now.

And by major, I mean a presidential election. Sure, we have midterms coming up, but Republicans have been losing/underperforming there as well, so either (1) it's not considered a "major" election for low-propensity voters -- in which case these special elections do mean much because their results can be extrapolated to other similar elections -- or (2) your theory about Democrats needs to be revisited.

[WarGamer]

19. Mostly these special elections are great for morale...

Might not mean much in the real world.

Remember all the special elections we won in 24... and some projected those wins to mean a General Election victory?

[Hieronymus Phact]

24. Not disagreeing but...

Historically Democrats have benefited from high turnouts because there were more of them, that's why republicans focus on suppressing the vote. If high turnout really was a benefit to them they would encourage it. What's been happening lately is i think disinformation and propaganda are swaying a lot of formerly democratic leaning types.

[Self Esteem]

35. Democrats historically were the party of low-propensity voters.

That's a big reason Clinton and Obama overperformed their party in multiple elections (as those voters typically only vote every four years). However, those voters have shifted significantly since 2016. High turnout generally means more of these low-propensity voters are getting out to the polls and they have not been favorable to Democrats in the most recent elections.

They hurt Hillary in 2016, was a big reason Trump overperformed polls in 2020 and why he won in 2024.

These voters are typically less engaged than high-propensity voters - they're generally lower income and less educated.

A big reason Democrats have done so well in these elections is because higher educated, more affluent voters tend to vote more consistently than less educated and lower income voters.

It wasn't that long ago Republicans dominated white, college educated voters. But Harris actually won white educated voters 53-46.

In 2020, Trump was the first Republican in over 60 years to lose college educated white voters, having barely won it in 2016 (here's an article about how he was possibly the first Republican in 60 years to lose that vote - which he didn't but did in 2020 and then again in 2024).

These voters vote in these types of elections. It's a big reason Democrats did so well in special elections throughout 2023 and 2024 - and that was not a precursor to anything in terms of general election success because Trump has taken a lot of those low-propensity voters who used to support the Democrats.

Democrats went from winning those who made less than $50,000 by +22 points in 2012 with Obama (vs Romney), to losing this demographic by 2 to Trump in 2024.

Trump's success has proven a realignment of sorts. Democrats went from the party of the lower working class with a significant amount of high school-only educated voters - to the party of higher incomes and more education across all demographics.

To further expand on this point: in 2012, Obama beat Romney 51-48 among voters who had only a high school education. In 2024, Trump beat Harris among this group 56-43. Those voters are less likely to vote in these off elections than affluent, more educated voters. That's why Democrats USED to do well with high turnout elections. But not anymore. Not in the Age of Trump.

[MadameButterfly]

41. Romney got caught on tape saying this:

"There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it -- that that's an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what. ... These are people who pay no income tax. ... [M]y job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

Trump has somehow managed to convince low information voters that he is different.

[Self Esteem]

45. Yes and it's made winning big turnout nationwide elections tough for Democrats.

The hope is that when Trump recedes from the national picture, those voters will shift back to the Democrats and the Democrats will be able to keep the white college educated voters that have abandoned the Republican Party the last eight years.

That coalition will be difficult to beat.

[MadameButterfly]

46. i hope we don't have to wait that long

Even the low info voters should be noticing there is a problem with Trump/Elon

[Prairie Gates]

10. Oy vey

Every election we hear the same shit, then 8 o'clock rolls around.

[milestogo]

11. They may have underestimated how much people hate Eloon.

He's made the race about himself instead of about the candidates. Republicans will realize that it is a big mistake to have him come to their state and campaign, big money or not.

[AltairIV]

13. fingers crossed

[Emile]

14. Don't jinx this.

[peggysue2]

15. Encouraging!

Interesting, too. The recent success in Louisiana where the Governor and legislature's four proposals were handily defeated was credited to a very large early vote. Even with the astoundingly low vote turnout, the Republicans (who predicted a 12% turnout) were taken by surprise by 21% of the electorate coming out and voting down their lousy ideas.

Here's hoping Wisconsin gives 'em Hell tonight!

[WarGamer]

18. Can't we just wait a few hours?

[MaineNative]

20. It's kismet

[dchill]

21. Oh no! Think of the poor little Musks!

[DFW]

25. Be very cautiously optimistic. VERY cautiously

Remember Scott Walker, Ron Johnson and, of course, the Trump elections.

Remember Waukesha County, where a closet, stuffed to the ceiling with “forgotten, misplaced” Republican votes has mysteriously been “discovered” at the last second to throw a close election rightward—and not just once, either.

[WiVoter]

27. Many power outages due to an ice storm.

Especially in the northern part of the state. Much of them still out. Rhinelander & Antigo will have to change sone polling places. Lots of cultists in those areas. That will definitely affect the magats turnout.

[JMCKUSICK]

28. From this page to Gods ear

[Owens]

29. Musk will use his Starlink to tamper with the ballots

The GOP ain't worried and the Democrats won't challenge it because of appearance sakes

[returnee]

34. My suspicion as well. n/t

[Demovictory9]

31. Good!!

[moniss]

32. I am wary of reports about low GQP turnout etc.

right before the election or on election day. They can serve the GQP purpose of dampening Democratic turnout because people might feel their is enough strength so they can skip voting.