Ever Read the Air Force Global Futures Report?
From 2023. Forecasts four future operating environments in 204:
Continued Growth
Transformational
Constrained
Collapse
Collapse is pretty grim:
The continued incremental rise in oceanic temperatures continue to have widespread impact on weather
patterns. By 2040, large storms, heat waves, and drought occur frequently resulting in devastating effects.
Giant weather systems regularly produce hurricane-force winds and floodwaters that require vulnerable
military installations to repeatedly evacuate or disperse. More worryingly, insurers and governments
worldwide are unable to provide adequate relief, which coupled with climate-related food shortages, has
led to the largest civil migration since the 1947 partition of India. The global movement of civilian workers
undermines workforce readiness, supply chains, and destabilizes many developing world economies and
governments...
The United States continues to internally fracture along cultural and political lines and, along with other
prior great powers, is now on a mirrored downslide due to domestic infighting stemming from economic
policy choices and distributive inequities. Smaller states try to pool their resources together to make a
sprint for power. In the early 2030s, in an aim to conserve strength, the United States stepped back
significantly from the NATO security alliance as it deemed that Russia after the Ukraine conflict was greatly
weakened. Increased nationalism in Europe and the United States independently increased their internal
divides, also undermining NATO. The current message from U.S. leadership is that it must protect what it
has at all costs and find new ways to reverse the current trends...
Sad to say, the Air Force didn't foresee how quickly Trump's second term could accelerate the trends in the second paragraph quoted.
I wonder how long this document will stay up - download it now if you're interested and have access:
https://www.af.mil/Portals/1/documents/2023SAF/Air_Force_Global_Futures_Report.pdf
If not, here's some coverage:
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-futures-four-scenarios-2040/
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