NC-SEN: North Carolina Senate Moves To Toss Up

[RandySF]

Cook Political Report: “The surprise move from Tillis moves this race into the Toss Up category and officially makes the Tar Heel State Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. The contest was already edging in this direction, but we had been awaiting former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision about whether to challenge Tillis.”

“The vulnerability of this seat, however, does not alter the overall Senate math for 2026. Even if Democrats were to win here in 2026, they’d still need to flip three more seats, including at least two in deep red states, in order to win a bare majority.”


https://politicalwire.com/2025/06/30/north-carolina-senate-moves-to-toss-up/

[SSJVegeta]

1. If roy cooper runs, its a guarantee pickup

[blm]

2. Cooper or Jeff Jackson.

[SSJVegeta]

3. Oooo

[Qutzupalotl]

11. Jackson for president

Cooper for Senate

[Wiz Imp]

4. I think NC & Maine are likely pickups now. We need to find the 2 next best bets.

If the economy gets as bad in the next year as I expect, then picking up additional seats is a very strong possibility.

Keep in mind, even at 51-49, several of the worst cabinet nominees definitely wouldn't have passed like Hegseth & Kennedy.

[SSJVegeta]

5. Your thoughts are my thoughts

Holding GA will be tough. But doable.


If it is a safe assumption much anger will be directed at ice raids, then largely Hispanic states like TX and Florida could be very possible. Ohio -if Brown runs, could work well also.

[Wiz Imp]

6. If conditions are as bad as I expect, then I think Ossoff wins in Georgia by a larger margin than his first election

However, I don't trust Florida. Starting with 2000, I don't think there's been a fair election in Florida since. I know Democrats' performance in Texas has disappointed a bit in recent elections, but at some point that is definitely going to change.

[SSJVegeta]

7. I think Florida GOPhas been propped up largely by the growing Cuban population

That group migggght not be as keen about the GOP platform in 2026 as they were in 2024 now that they are targets of it. I see Florida -and most of the country, finally going the way California did in 1994.

[JI7]

8. No, Florida is propped up by huge numbers of right wingers

Moving there from other states .

That's why we have little chance there.

[SSJVegeta]

10. A little surprised to see it is still a majority white state

Yeah...

[Wiz Imp]

15. Yeah. Only 7% of Florida's population is Cuban.

https://www.governing.com/policy/floridas-cubans-once-a-protected-class-face-new-immigration-threats#:~:text=Florida%20is%20home%20to%20approximately,Pinellas%2C%20Pasco%20and%20Polk%20counties.

Florida is home to approximately 1.6 million residents of Cuban origin, representing 7 percent of the state’s total population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the 2020 census, the racial distributions was as follows; 51.5% Non-Hispanic White, 26.6% of the population are Hispanics or Latino (of any race), 14.5% African American, 0.4% Native American, 3.0% Asian, 0.6% 'some other race,' and 3.7% multiracial.

https://latino.ucla.edu/research/15-facts-latinos-florida/

Florida Latinos are diverse, especially when compared to U.S. Latinos (Figure 1). Latinos of Cuban descent represent the single largest Latino ancestry group (28%), while Puerto Ricans (21%), South Americans (18%), Mexicans (14%), and Dominicans (4%) round out the top 5 groups by origin. In contrast, U.S. Latinos are majority Mexican (62%), while Puerto Ricans, South Americans, Cubans, and Dominicans respectively represent 10% or less of the Latino population.

[SSJVegeta]

18. Thank you for this.

I mean I dont keep out of the realm of possibilities if things get as bad as we both probably think they will. But even so, GOP might still keep a stranglehold on the state.

[Wiz Imp]

19. I just found this: Race to the WH website as of today predicts 50 R, 48 D with 2 tossups

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26#google_vignette

They have Maine & Ohio as tossups (and I'm very confident that Dems win Maine)

Alaska is Tilt R
Florida & Iowa are Lean R

They rate Michigan & North Carolina as Tilt D
Georgia & Minnesota are Lean D

That's a pretty optimistic projection. If the economy tanks as expected, the outlook for Dems will only get better.

[FBaggins]

12. NC, yes... but I'll never be convinced on Maine again

Unless Collins similarly gets out of the way

Keep in mind, even at 51-49,

Keep in mind that four of our own seats are in danger as well.

[Wiz Imp]

14. Collins has never had approval ratings anywhere close to as low as they are now.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/mainers-concerned-with-collins/

PPP’s new Maine poll finds that voters in the state- across party lines- have concerns with Susan Collins. Her approval rating is only 24%, with 61% of voters disapproving of her. She faces strong disapproval from both Harris (17/71) and Trump (30/52) voters alike.

That's -37% net.

In the past, she always was able to maintain a close to even net approval at worst. She now has the worst approval ratings of any senator. She's done for. In fact, I'd say an alternate Republican would have a much better chance of winning than she does at this point. I kind of expect her to retire.

[FBaggins]

16. She was nowhere near even six years ago

Every poll showed her behind… often badly (12 points for Quinnipiac)… yet she won by almost double digits.

I’m not saying that it can’t happen… I’m just saying that I won’t believe it until I see it.

[Wiz Imp]

17. PPP had her at -15% net approval in 2020. Not remotely close to as bad as now.

Sorry. She's done. People have finally grown sick and disgusted with her. She has zero chance of winning. I guarantee it.

[totodeinhere]

9. Cooper might be the favorite, but nothing is guaranteed in politics. n/t

[JanMichael]

13. True Cooper just doesn't lose statewide elections.

[Demovictory9]

20. Kick

[Polybius]

21. I've always had it as a toss-up

Tillis wasn't popular and barely won last time around.