37% are solid MAGA; Musk is going to start a third party.

[applegrove]

Musk Pledges to Form Third Party If Budget Bill Passes

June 30, 2025 at 8:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 155 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/06/30/musk-will-set-up-third-party-if-tax-bill-passes/

Elon Musk, on X:

“If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day. Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a voice.”

And he added a threat:

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

Applegrove: with 3 parties running, the one with 37% of support wins. Don't do it Musk. Trump has 37% MAGA base. Trump will win.

[Initech]

1. Yeah because 3rd parties run by criminally insane billionaires are always a good idea!

[comradebillyboy]

31. If it splits the Republican vote it's a great idea.

Musk, as deplorable as he is, is not quite as loony as Donald.

[Polybius]

34. And certainly smarter

[boston bean]

2. You really think MAGA will support him?

[applegrove]

3. No I don't. Trump will win. That is my point.

[boston bean]

4. I am not following.

[applegrove]

13. 37% is Trump's base. Those are winning numbers for an election

with three parties running. That 37% have never abandoned Trump.

[Wiz Imp]

11. Trump will win what?

Trump can't run again. And NO, don't say he will find a way. Nonsense. He can not and will not run again. There's probably at least a 75%-80% likelihood he will be dead by 2028 anyway.

[applegrove]

14. The mid terms. If Musk starts a third party Republicans

will win the mid terms.Those Trump MAGA voters won't want to see Trump become weak tea. They'll show up for the middle terms. And for Trump again if he runs for a third term.

[Wiz Imp]

17. 😏🙄Completely Illogical and Downright Wrong

Where are all of these MAGA people going to come from? Trump barely won. Republicans barely won the house. Musk isn't going to attract Democrats. A Third party pretty much GUARANTEES a win for Democrats.

[applegrove]

20. That is not the experience in Canada with multiple parties.

Mark Carney won a majority with 43.5%. Poilievre came in second with just over 41%. Trump's solid base is 37%. They didn't abandon him after the insurrection. They just shouted "more of that please". At both the first and second parties getting over 40% was way out of the ordinary..... a really high %.keep in mind that 30% of Americans don't bother to vote.

[Wiz Imp]

29. The US is not anything like Canada when it comes to elections

Third parties draw voters from existing voters from one of the 2 parties or from non voters. So the nonvoters for either of the 2 parties don't change the results for those parties when they vote 3rd party. For previous existing voters, third parties generally draw more existing voters from one party or the other. In Musk's case, he's not going to draw many if any Democratic voters. So any existing voters drawn to the third party will come from the Republican Party. This lowers the vote total for Republicans without impacting Democratic votes. The existence of a third party is not going to get additional nonvoters to vote for Republicans - that would make absolutely no sense. So clearly, Musk's third party would effectively throw the election to Democrats because they are drawing pretty much exclusively from Republicans, lowering the Republican vote totals. When things are as close as they were in 2024, it takes relatively few voters to switch their votes from Republican to 3rd party to throw the election to the Democrats.

[applegrove]

30. Oh I hope I'm wrong and you are right. My worry is that

with 30% not voting, that leaves 70% for voting people. If Trump gets his base of 37% to all get out and vote, that leaves 33% for the Democrats and the Musk Party to split. That is the math I do not like.

[AZJonnie]

35. Well luckily that's not the right math

The POTUS election was within like, what, 1.5% between Trump and Harris, and we're only a few seats from having the House?

The math is: as long as Musk siphons a MORE GQP votes than he nabs Democrat votes (which seems plausible), and the total number of people voting for his party is somewhat significant, he could help us start winning elections.

[misanthrope]

36. I think Musk is about to fall on his ass again

Just like his mission to buy a judge's seat in Wisconsin earlier this year.

[usedtobedemgurl]

8. Nope....

But he who counts the votes……Starlink software!

[Maru Kitteh]

9. Naderesque quests for glory are the stuff of nightmares that we live

right now, every single day since Bush v Gore.

[highplainsdem]

6. He's much more likely to hurt Republicans than Democrats, IMO.

[Wiz Imp]

12. Right. I say more power to him.

Not that I think there's any real chance of him getting anything off the ground, but if he could successfully start a new party, he would draw almost exclusively from Republicans which would make it much easier for Democrats to win.

[rso]

7. Third Party

Musk is definitely going to hurt republicans more than democrats, so I say please proceed with a third Party Elon.

[OC375]

10. What Ballot?

If his party gets legs I’d be shocked if they didn’t find some way to keep them off most ballots.

[CanonRay]

25. More like what election.

I sincerely believe there will be no midterms. Trump will cancel them and enforce it with troops. Talk me down.

[fujiyamasan]

15. I don't see any natural constituency or base for Elon

Aside from his ever diminishing Tesla cult.

Sure, his money served a purpose, and after the election he was given his dumb playgroup to burn a few agencies to the ground. But if anyone remembers, he is hated by the more virulent xenophobic base and the Loomer/Bannon crowd.

Let him throw his money away at whatever he wants though. I wonder which rocket will be his spruce goose.

[Wiz Imp]

18. His constituency would be Rand Paul and Thomas Massie type Republicans

A reminder even Republicans hate this bill. There are plenty of Republican voters who definitely would choose what Musk is selling over Trump.

[fujiyamasan]

19. Yes, a small assortment of libertarian whack jobs

As I said, any money he throws at this project of his, I’m all for.

Elections are mostly won at the margins. Any voters he pulls away from the republican candidate is a plus.

[Emile]

16. Republicans march in lockstep, the magic R

will have them hypnotized.

[Skittles]

21. FUCK Musk and his BOTHSIDERISM

HE BOUGHT HIMSELF A FASCIST REPUKE FUCK and now he is SO DISMAYED by the results ANYONE WITH CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS COULD SEE COMING

FUCK HIM

[Big Blue Marble]

22. Do not panic.

If and that is a big if, Musk starts a third party, his support will be from right of
center. By next year, there will be even more people unhappy with Trump and his
Republicans. I doubt his solid core is more than 33% at that point.

Musk has destroyed his brand with the left and much of the center. Most likely
a third party will make it easier for Dems to win especially if they have good strong
candidates. We are more likely to win back the Senate in this scenario.

[applegrove]

23. I hope you are correct.

[Big Blue Marble]

24. Me, too.

[H2O Man]

27. Well said.

[H2O Man]

26. I don't think

that Musk has had support outside of maga. It is possible that he could attract some of the cult, as this dynamic is common when the cult leader fails to deliver what he promised. And he might get a small number of independents. But this will help Democrats in most instances. It is a good thing.

[mopinko]

37. the new ross perot.

tho nadar is a more recent debacle, he was a russian puppet. perot, crazy as he was, was his own man.
ready for the next bill clinton.

[grumpyduck]

28. Looney, you and tsf deserve each other.

You are just a spoiled brat pissed off because you didn't get your way. May a thousand defective Cybertrucks find their way up your rectum. Sideways.

[ReRe]

32. Wrong name for his third party

Should be "The Oligarch Party".

[-misanthroptimist]

33. Your conclusion implies that Musk voters...

...will come from the Democratic side. That seems way off to me.

[themaguffin]

38. I'm 100% for another right wing party. Please please please. It's about f ing time, the GOP got a taste of its own...

electoral fuckery.

[MineralMan]

39. When your enemies fight with each other, just watch and cheer them on.

That has always been good advice.