The interpretation of the polling Re: Midterms

[Pototan]

I follow polling closely. I understand some are biased and some are outliers. Democrats are not only overperforming the 2024 elections, but the polling itself. I contend that that's because of the strongly disapprove number vs. the strongly approve Trump numbers.

This portends very well for the midterms.


Rasmussen Reports (Jan. 12, 2026): 45% of likely U.S. voters "Strongly Disapprove" compared to 30% who "Strongly Approve".

Silver Bulletin average (late Dec. 2025/early Jan. 2026): Approximately 44.1% of Americans strongly disapprove, while 25.2% strongly approve.

Economist / YouGov Poll (Dec. 20-22, 2025): While general disapproval was 57%, 52% of those respondents indicated they strongly disapprove. In contrast, only 9% strongly approved (with another 10% somewhat approving).

Overall, Trump has a consistently high negative polarization, meaning those who dislike him tend to feel more intensely about it than those who support him. His net approval rating (approve minus disapprove) has generally been negative across most recent national polls, falling as low as -19 in some cases.

[EdmondDantes_]

1. I think that's a pretty good part of it

The only thing I would add is that nobody on the Republican side has managed to match whatever charisma Trump has for his supporters. So when other Republicans cling to him in the primaries where it's either only or mostly Republicans, they generally win, but when they get to general elections and Trump isn't on the ballot, they aren't able to counteract the anger Trump inspires in most people given his very strong disapproval numbers with both Democrats and independents.