CA-40: Three-Way Dead Heat in House Battleground
MISSION VIEJO, CA – Esther Kim-Varet, Democratic frontrunner to flip California’s 40th Congressional District, today released a new Tulchin Research poll of likely June 2026 primary voters showing a three-way dead heat for the top two general election spots: Republican Ken Calvert at 24%, Republican Young Kim at 22%, and Kim-Varet at 20%, all three candidates statistically tied within the survey’s ±4.37% margin of error.
Kim-Varet has more than doubled her support since January and now leads every other Democrat in the race by a wide margin. Kim-Varet’s closest Democratic rival stagnates at 6% with no path to gain share due to their underfunded campaign. Meanwhile, Esther Kim-Varet’s campaign continues to accelerate as it rapidly expands paid and earned media channels to reach CA40 voters, while activating its base of more than 5,000 in-district donors and volunteers.
California’s top-two primary system advances the two highest finishers, regardless of party, to the November general election. With Calvert, Kim, and Kim-Varet locked in a statistical tie, the next 26 days will decide which two candidates make it to November and which one is eliminated. If Esther Kim-Varet does not finish in the top two, the Democratic Party’s only chance to flip CA-40 ends on June 2.
In a major feature story today, The New York Times highlighted the dynamics and stakes of this unprecedented race, extensively quoting Kim-Varet.
https://theliberaloc.com/2026/05/09/three-way-dead-heat-in-ca-40-house-battleground/