Israel unlikely to exit Lebanon without US 'putting the hammer down'

[hookaleft]

Whether Israel respects the interim agreement by pulling out of southern Lebanon and stops its attacks depends on how much pressure the US is prepared to exert on its ally, an analyst says.

“We see Trump responding to Iranian pressure. It therefore depends on how much Iran is going to use this as leverage during a negotiation,” Dan Perry, former chief of The Associated Press in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, told Al Jazeera.

Speaking from Tel Aviv, Perry said he doubts Israel will pull out “of the buffer zone in southern Lebanon without really having Trump putting the hammer down, as long as Hezbollah remains armed and potentially a threat for a cross-border incursion”.

From Israel’s perspective, there’s a lot of concern because this is viewed as a capitulation that basically casts aside all of the war goals of Israel and America, both throwing not just Israel under the bus, but also Lebanon, which is aligned with Israel in its desire to see Hezbollah disarmed.”

Live Updates

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/18/iran-war-live-trump-pezeshkian-sign-mou-to-end-fighting-reopen-hormuz

[stopdiggin]

1. Find it somewhat amazing that there are a bunch of observers that STILL

appear convinced that Israeli foreign policy is run out of Washington ...
Which necessitates the question ... What, exactly would it take .. ?

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[sboatcar]

2. Right? At the beginning of the war, the exact opposite was true

Bibi ordered up America to fight this war, and when it lasted longer than Trump's attention span, the whole thing fell apart. Now if only we could work on them exerting less control over congress.....

[stopdiggin]

3. how many consecutive Israeli governments now ...

that have been essentially giving Washington the stiff-arm - in regarded to (clearly articulated) U.S. concerns and desires .. ?

[sboatcar]

4. Yet we continue to lavish them with money and support.

Those two things don't add up.

[H2O Man]

7. I've never encountered

a single person who thinks that. Just the opposite. The fella in the White House, for example, didn't lie to Netanyahu to get involved in the war against Iran.

[stopdiggin]

8. Hmmm .... Curious.

I find the opinion and perception that I pointed to (vis-a-vis U.S. / Israel) to be fairly commonplace.

[H2O Man]

9. Do these people

think there is a pro-American version of AIPAC in Israel?

[stopdiggin]

10. I don't know what 'those' people think

But do know that I myself find the, "but .. AIPAC !" angst to be both non-sequitur, (perhaps slightly bigoted?) - and depressingly facile.

[H2O Man]

12. Wait.

In your first post, you claimed that you knew what some unidentified group of people think. But now you don't?

Just my opinionj, but being opposed to the genocide in Gaza, the violent theft of land in the West Bank, the bombing of Lebanon, along with the war in Iran isn't "bigoted." I don't feel that stick.

[stopdiggin]

13. While of course every nickel given to AIPAC - is donated with precisely those goals in mind ...

So glad to be couched in that certitude and moral clarity ....

Meanwhile skirting once again the central tenet under discussion (or at least that would hold for the OP and my responses) which continues to revolve around hoary mythology of Israel and Washington marching in lockstep - on these and a whole host of other issues. They quite clearly do not - and have not for a considerable period of time.

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[H2O Man]

14. It would be cause

for a failure in a junior high school debate if one made a weak attempt to attribute a position to another that is untrue.

U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee recently hosted Jonathan Pollard in the American embassy. On top of his saying that Israel has the "bibical right" to engage in murdering thousands of little children has a wide variety of American citizens questioning our country's relationship with Israel. They have every right to do so. Only those with a specific agenda view that as a problem.

[stopdiggin]

15. Israel continues to strike Lebanon - and expand its

territorial incursion - even as we make these posts. (and the administration tries desperately to sell, "peace accord !" ) Serving to illustrate, once again, and in real time - that Washington is not calling the shots. Arguing against this central tenet .... Seems to me a willful dismissal of facts on the ground - together with distortion of a position that I have consistently laid out (or at least done my best to) since the beginning of this thread. (post #1)

[H2O Man]

16. Of course.

You are the only person I've ever heard pretend that Washington is calling the shots. As I noted in my first response, that is the exact opposite of what has been going on.

[stopdiggin]

17. Palestinian protests have really receded that far into the distance .. ?

shall we drum up a few more chants of "Genocide Joe" to refresh .. ?
"Israel does nothing without the abetment .. "

But, if these little nuance and slogans have escaped your notice up until now ... So be it.

You have a healthy weekend, brother. ( I don't think you're likely to see peace )

[H2O Man]

18. One would be

delusional to think those protesting the Israeli genocide in Gaza were under the impression that President Biden was in charge of Netanyahu's tactics. Obviously, they wanted the U.S. to pressure Netanyahu to stop, and/or to stop giving them the weapons of destruction. Again, you come up with something that attempts -- but fails -- to indicate anyone other than you has ever said there are people who think our country dictates to Israel.

It's interesting to think back to people -- even good people on this forum -- saying that the college kids protesting the genocide in Gaza were hurting our party. Things sure have changed. Netanyahu has done so much damage to Israel and the United States since then.

I will have a very happy and peaceful weekend. Of course, being old and long retired, I don't usually keep track of what day of the week it is, as months are the main thing these days. But my daughter & family will get here from Europe on Sunday. (Not that I expect events in the Middle East to remain calm, though I hope it does.) I hope that you & yours have a great weekend, too.

[stopdiggin]

19. Dunno, my friend. I found those 'Genocide' chants to be rather pointed - specific in nature

and both succinct and quite clearly and directly targeting ....
But seemingly - I was completely misinterpreting the whole thing .... My bad.

[H2O Man]

20. Yeah.

People wanted to hear President Biden to, at very least, speak out about Israel's genocide in Gaza. That should be easily understood. Now, some thought that recognizing the passion of those college students exercising their Amendment 1 rights in a positive way would damage our party's chances in elections. Instead, our party's presidential campaign opted to focus upon getting support from republicans who couldn't stand the current president. That, of course, was a significant gactor in the 2016 and 2024 loses. It may or may not be the reason that we lost a state that should have been safe.

Now I had long wanted Joe Biden to be president. Though Biden hadn't lived in Scranton for long, my relatives there -- neighbors of the then governor, so as a kid, I competed in sports with the governor's son who became a Senator. I think that they had all known Biden's family, plus Joe is Irish, so I had heard conversations about this young man destined to become president as a teenager. A decade later -- the 1980s -- I was sure he'd eventually be president, and a mighty good one at that. Obviously, I didn't agree with a couple positios he took. But I'd hate to have a president that agreed with me on everything.

So I supported his campaign for re-election in '24. I understood his dropping out, and I fully supported VP Harris. Back when she ran in 2020, I remember wishing she did better in the primaries, because I thought she would be perfect for debating the convicted sex offender/felon. I think we had great candidates in 2016 and 2024, but lost to the sociopath now inhabiting the White House. So I often think about the why. There have to be reasons for that turd beating two out of three far superior candidates.

Now, I'm not saying this is the only reason, for I recognize that I'm not very smart. But in terms of numbers, from least to most, it goes like this: maga/republican, Democratic Party, and Independents. Politics 101 involves that in any campaign, you make sure your party gets out the vote, concentrate on appealing to the undecided (Indepents in today's reality), and avoid as much contact with your opposition as possible while campaigning. The exception is, of course, candidates' debates. Thus, in my opinion, it is a waste of resources to focus on appealing to the tiny number of republicans, rather than the Independents.

That may be easier for our candidates to do this year in the mid-terms. There doesn't appear to much support outside of DC for enabling the Israeli gross violence.

[Prairie Gates]

5. I guess that means more videos of drones smashing Merkava tanks and invading forces

Netanyahu should take this as an opportunity to get his occupying forces out of a situation that's quickly spiraling out of their control.

It will be much easier to say that Trump made you leave Lebanon than that Hizbollah did. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, Bibi.

[tanyev]

6. TACO speaks loudly and carries a teeny-tiny hammer.

[no_hypocrisy]

11. Trump's Dilemma:

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