SpaceX just landed in millions of 401(k)s due to index rule changes -- OpenAi and Anthropic are next

[SamuelTheThird]

Theyre going to screw over everyone

https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/spacex-401k-anthropic-openai-ipo-index-fund-rules

On June 18, just five trading days after the listing, SpaceX entered the CRSP US Total Market Index — the benchmark behind the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (NYSEARCA:VTI), one of the most widely held funds in America and many other index funds.
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Anthropic filed confidentially on June 1; OpenAI followed on June 8, disclosing the filing itself before word could leak. Neither has priced an offering or set a firm date — OpenAI's finance chief has signaled its listing may not arrive until late 2026 or 2027, and recent reporting indicates OpenAI hasn't yet held pre-IPO investor meetings. But the structural setup is what matters, and it's nearly identical to SpaceX's.

Both are enormous, and both would float only a sliver of their stock — exactly the profile the new float rules were built to admit. OpenAI was last valued around $852 billion, Anthropic around $965 billion; with SpaceX, the three represent roughly $3.6 trillion on paper, more than the total value of every company that went public in 2021, the previous record year for US listings, according to Bloomberg.

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What that means in practice: when OpenAI and Anthropic list at scale and clear the float-adjusted bar, the same machinery that pulled SpaceX into your funds in five trading days is positioned to pull them in too. The exact weight will hinge on how much stock each floats — and investment adviser Jacob Friedman has noted that a company coming public with even a 15-to-20% float would produce far larger index weights and greater immediate passive demand than SpaceX's thin float did. SpaceX, on that view, is the floor of what these inclusions look like, not the ceiling.

[jmbar2]

1. Yipes!

I don't have any funds, but feel for people close to retirement who do.

[rampartd]

2. is this even "capitalism?"

the immediate demand placed by making these securities mandatory allows the insiders control supply and pump the price. we will be paying more for the stock than it will be worth.

[fujiyamasan]

3. It was bound to be included in VTI at some point so that's not really concerning

Just to give an idea VTI “relies on market-cap weighting to passively track the CRSP US Total Market Index. It includes essentially all investable U.S. equities (large, mid, small, and micro-cap stocks) without subjective committee selection”

It includes 3,484 holdings basically comprising much of the US market. It’s a passive index fund so there’s no forced inclusion here.

What’s more concerning is the fast track for the Nasdaq 100 tracked by the popular ETF QQQ. It’s heavily tech based, but has had strong performances over the decades, but it also more volatile than say the S&P500. On the plus side, S and P declined its own profitability standards to fast track SpaceX inclusion.