U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the 4th quarter after upgrade in final growth estimate

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Associated Press, via Yahoo! Finance

U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the 4th quarter after upgrade in final growth estimate

PAUL WISEMAN
Thu, March 27, 2025 at 8:37 AM EDT * 2 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy expanded at a healthy annual 2.4% pace the final three months of 2024, supported by a year-end surge in consumer spending, the government said Thursday in a slight upgrade of its previous estimate of fourth-quarter growth. ... But it’s unclear whether the United States can sustain that growth as President Donald Trump wages trade wars, purges the federal workforce and promises mass deportations of immigrants working in the country illegally.

Growth in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — decelerated from a 3.1% pace in July-September 2024, the Commerce Department said. ... For all of 2024, the economy — the world’s biggest — grew 2.8%, down a tick from 2.9% in 2023. ... Consumer spending rose at a 4% pace, up from 3.7% in third-quarter 2023. But business investment fell, led by an 8.7% drop in investment in equipment. ... A drop in business inventories shaved 0.84 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP growth.

A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a healthy 2.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, slipping from the government's previous estimate of 3.2% and from 3.4% in the third quarter. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending.

Wednesday’s report showed continued inflationary pressure at the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index – rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, up from 1.5% in the third quarter and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PC inflation registered 2.6%, compared to 2.2% in the third quarter.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economy-grew-2-4-123742572.html

---

From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2024-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and

Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.



The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports. For more information, refer to the "Technical Notes" below.

{snip}

[twodogsbarking]

1. BT. Before Trump.

[unblock]

2. This is going to make Donnie's first quarter look bad. I'm expecting about 0.2% growth for q1.

There's still a small chance of an actual contraction for the quarter.

Note that I believe we're already in a contraction, started mid-February, but I think January was good enough to keep the quarter positive.

[chia]

3. They'll just fix the numbers to look good. Who could trust their numbers on this or anything else?

[unblock]

5. I don't think they're there, at least not yet.

If there's one constituency they'll somewhat listen to, it's Wall Street, and Wall Street really really really wants economic numbers they can trust.

Plus, I think they'll mess with things like unemployment rates before gdp, especially now when everyone is expecting minimal growth for q1.

More likely is maybe a year from now, the numbers start showing a big recovery when reality doesn't suggest that at all....

[Rebl2]

6. Exactly

They will lie about all the numbers. What is actually happening in the country, like layoffs, increases in deaths from communicable disease, deteriorating infrastructure, increased crime, deterioration of education, housing downturn, etc. will have to be reported by state and local cities and media.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. From the article

Thursday's report was the government's third and final look at fourth-quarter GDP.

I knew they did at least 2 revisions but didn't realize there would be that "3rd" one!