Recession odds are rising as Trump's trade war escalates, Goldman Sachs says

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNN Business

Updated 11:44 AM EDT, Mon March 31, 2025


CNN — The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously. Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.

While Goldman Sachs still expects the US economy to avoid a downturn, other forecasters think it’s more of a 50/50 call. This is Goldman’s highest recession probability since the regional banking crisis two years ago. The catalyst now is the shock from President Donald Trump’s trade war, which is set to intensify this week.

Goldman Sachs blamed the “sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of these policies,” the bank’s economists wrote in the report.

Consumer confidence has plunged in recent months. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed the highest percentage of Americans expecting unemployment to rise since the Great Recession as inflation expectations hit 32-year highs.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/31/business/recession-tariffs-goldman-sachs/index.html

[Tarzanrock]

1. Thanks, Turd. Thanks for destroying the American economy.

Isn't it more than clear to even Fascist Republicans that the wannbe King of Greenland is pathologically insane? The Republicans and the Turd own this economic downturn lock, stock and barrel. It's their baby! How fucking bad must the U.S. economy get before these Republican assholes impeach their fucking moron?

[BaronChocula]

2. We could be in a recession now

You don't know until it's too late.

I wonder Kris Jansing is howling "WORRIES OF RECESSION GROW!!!!" every morning at the beginning of her show like she did for years during the Biden admin (I exaggerate just a little).

[IronLionZion]

3. I encourage MAGAts to buy Tesla vehicles and Tesla stock

go all in. Go deep in debt to finance a new Cybertruck.

[OverBurn]

4. Putin's bought, payed for and owned US President is really paying off for Russia.

Start a tariff war with the entire world and punish everyone. The tariff war in the 1930's deepened the depression and caused a global recession. Putin is delighted.