Oil prices may be starting to come down for a worrisome reason

[riversedge]

Oil prices may be starting to come down for a worrisome reason

The largest oil shock in history caused prices to surge. Now they're so high that they may be causing "demand destruction." That would mean slower economic growth.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/oil-prices-may-starting-come-worrisome-reason-rcna331690?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us



April 14, 2026, 11:01 AM CDT
By Rob Wile

Oil prices have started to slip — but not necessarily for reasons that suggest a return to market normalcy.

The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that “demand destruction” has begun to unfold. As a result of the acute energy commodity shortages stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil appears to have reached a point where it is now so expensive that overseas businesses and households have begun curbing investment and consumption.

Countries in Asia, Europe and even other parts of the Middle East that depend on supplies passing through the strait have begun curtailing their use of natural gas, seen waves of flight cancellations and implemented policies to reduce overall fuel use, the agency noted in the report.

It’s a phenomenon likely to affect global economic growth. And while it does not yet appear to be affecting the U.S. economy, any impact would threaten to destabilize an already fragile labor market. ..................

[Bluetus]

1. Nah, they are coming down because

Trump removed the sanctions on Russia and Iran. The market is expecting that when this is all over there will be more oil flowing than at any time since Russia invaded Ukraine.

So much winning.

[LymphocyteLover]

3. Due to Ukrainian attacks on Russia oil infrastructure, they are not exporting that much now. And Iran certainly isn't

exporting much oil especially now with the Strait blockaded

[Bluetus]

4. Markets anticipate

Markets do not reflect today's situation. They reflect what investors expect a month from now of 6 months from now.

[LymphocyteLover]

5. Markets, yes, to a large extent. But the day to day price of oil takes into account current events

[Bluetus]

6. Markets look at avalable information to project future profits/prices

(depending on whether we are talking stock or commodities). The major downward move is because the market broadly expects that this ends up with no substantial restriction of shipping, and both Iran and Russia free to sell more crude. There is a strong consensus about that. There is not a consensus about a recession big enough to greatly affect oil prices. As the expression goes, economists have predicted 20 of the last 5 recessions.

Be that as it may, BOTH of those factors point toward better supply than demand, so the effects are additive.

[House of Roberts]

2. Conservation due to high prices can be a good thing.

I learned to shop cheaper in the Bush recession of 2009-2011. I still shop that way. I learned better cooking skills during the pandemic, and, being retired, have the time to continue cooking more of my own food.
People switch to more fuel efficient vehicles, and keep using them. Some find out carpooling isn't as restrictive as they feared, and keep doing it.