Hormuz was opening, and may be closing again. We must not return to business as usual

[nitpicked]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hormuz-was-opening-and-may-be-closing-again-we-must-not-return-to-business-as-usual/ar-AA26wRIe?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=6a3d483ba2c8447b8747ee86ffbd8269&ei=45

After nearly four months of grinding disruption since late February 2026, it looks like the Strait of Hormuz is slowly opening – commercial traffic is moving again. Yet anyone inclined to declare victory should pause. We have endured at least two false dawns and this could be another, with some ships turning back even as this is written.

Pre-war, the Strait saw 100-138 vessel transits daily. Last week, traceable traffic reached a total of 119 – a 270 per cent jump from the prior period, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Crossings nearly tripled in one week, from 32 vessels (June 12-14) to 93 (June 19-21).

Windward data show the Strait is busier than at any point since early March, with a new central corridor just to the south of the “old” Traffic Separation Scheme emerging alongside the northern (Iran-controlled) and southern (Oman/US-assisted) routes. Eleven thousand mariners, many stranded for months and often the unseen victims in these situations, are finally leaving the Gulf. Fewer are entering, for now, presumably for fear of re-escalation and then getting trapped.

Lloyd’s List notes that those moving first are, predictably, the vessels with the largest hull sections – the theory being that they are better placed to survive a mine strike that a smaller ship would not. That is a sobering way to measure confidence in a ceasefire.
(snip)

[Cheezoholic]

1. It should be renamed the Strait of Lindsey Graham lol n/t

[WSHazel]

2. The oil producers are getting more oil out than the market "experts" claim

Oil is in the low 70's. A lot of these "experts", who are likely just really long the market, are trying to talk it up, but the supply is still OK and demand destruction is happening every time someone buys an EV or hybrid, or puts in a heat pump.

The biggest winner of the Iran War is the renewable energy market. Not only will renewables save the planet, they will save the global economy too.