Miami Mayor Odds: Democrat Eileen Higgins Takes Commanding Lead Over Emilio Gonzalez Ahead of Dec. 9 Runoff
The Miami mayoral race has transformed from a competitive, unpredictable contest into one of the most lopsided runoff matchups in recent Florida political memory. After no candidate reached the 50% threshold in the November 4 election, the field narrowed to the top two vote getters: Democrat Eileen Higgins and Republican Emilio Gonzalez. What was once viewed as a tight ideological clash for control of one of America’s fastest growing cities has now turned into a runaway surge for Higgins, whose momentum has accelerated sharply over the past six weeks.
This contest was expected to be close. Miami’s recent political trajectory has tilted increasingly red, with Republican backed candidates performing well in federal and statewide races since 2018. Gonzalez entered the fall stretch as the presumed frontrunner, bolstered by the endorsement of Governor Ron DeSantis and leading heavily in early probabilities. But as the field of candidates fractured the vote and Higgins carved out a broad coalition among young voters, urban progressives, and moderate Democrats, the dynamics shifted dramatically. By late October, the race was no longer Gonzalez’s to lose — it was Higgins’ to seize.
Now, with just days remaining before the December 9 runoff, the probability markets have reached their strongest verdict yet. Higgins, who secured nearly double Gonzalez’s vote share in the first round, is now trading at an overwhelming 98% chance to win. Gonzalez has plummeted to 5%, reflecting the near impossibility of making up such a large gap in a head to head matchup. Let’s break down how the odds unfolded and what the final week looks like for both candidates.
https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20251202-miami-mayor-odds-democrat-eileen-higgins-takes-commanding-lead-over-emilio-gonzalez-ahead-of-dec-9-runoff