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HUFFPOLLSTER: Have Polls Been Understating Dems' Chances In Georgia?
HUFFPOLLSTER: Have Polls Been Understating Dems' Chances In Georgia?
ENCOURAGING NEWS FOR NUNN IN GEORGIA - Two new polls in Georgia show Democrat Michelle Nunn running even or slightly ahead of Republican David Perdue. A new automated telephone poll sponsored by Atlanta's WXIA and conducted by SurveyUSA gives Nunn a 3-point advantage (48 to 45 percent). Another automated poll released on Tuesday by Atlanta's Channel 2 Action News, and conducted by Republican political consulting firm Landmark Communications, found a 46 to 46 percent tie. With the exception of previous Landmark surveys, which have consistently favored Nunn, other Georgia polls conducted since August have given Perdue nominal leads, usually in the low single digits. The new polls narrow Perdue's advantage as measured by Pollster's poll tracking model to just under 4 percentage points (46.9 to 43.2 as of this writing). The model rates Perdue's probability of winning at just 62 percent.
[11Alive, Landmark, Pollster Georgia chart]
Have GA polls been understating Nunn's support? - The New York Times' Nate Cohn recently argued that previous Georgia polls may be understating the size of Georgia's African American electorate. Georgia publishes statistics on the racial composition of registered voters and past electorates. Cohn estimates, based on past turnout and recent registration reports, that the 2014 electorate should be nearly 29 percent black, but says that many recent polls have estimated a smaller black electorate, ranging between 24 and 28 percent. The latest Landmark poll was 29 percent African American. [NYT]
DSCC invests in Georgia - The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee may have reached a similar conclusion. Politico reported on Tuesday that the DSCC is purchasing a million dollars in airtime in the state. [Politico]
ENCOURAGING NEWS FOR NUNN IN GEORGIA - Two new polls in Georgia show Democrat Michelle Nunn running even or slightly ahead of Republican David Perdue. A new automated telephone poll sponsored by Atlanta's WXIA and conducted by SurveyUSA gives Nunn a 3-point advantage (48 to 45 percent). Another automated poll released on Tuesday by Atlanta's Channel 2 Action News, and conducted by Republican political consulting firm Landmark Communications, found a 46 to 46 percent tie. With the exception of previous Landmark surveys, which have consistently favored Nunn, other Georgia polls conducted since August have given Perdue nominal leads, usually in the low single digits. The new polls narrow Perdue's advantage as measured by Pollster's poll tracking model to just under 4 percentage points (46.9 to 43.2 as of this writing). The model rates Perdue's probability of winning at just 62 percent.
[11Alive, Landmark, Pollster Georgia chart]
Have GA polls been understating Nunn's support? - The New York Times' Nate Cohn recently argued that previous Georgia polls may be understating the size of Georgia's African American electorate. Georgia publishes statistics on the racial composition of registered voters and past electorates. Cohn estimates, based on past turnout and recent registration reports, that the 2014 electorate should be nearly 29 percent black, but says that many recent polls have estimated a smaller black electorate, ranging between 24 and 28 percent. The latest Landmark poll was 29 percent African American. [NYT]
DSCC invests in Georgia - The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee may have reached a similar conclusion. Politico reported on Tuesday that the DSCC is purchasing a million dollars in airtime in the state. [Politico]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/georgia-senate-polls_n_5989184.html