Putin's Army is Exhausted - But Will Brittleness Lead to Collapse or More Grind? - Silicon Curtain

[TexasTowelie]

Silicon Bites Ep277 | 2025-12-20 | “Russia’s Army Is Exhausted” — we examine some major articles that have come out that claim the Russian army is reaching a significant point of degradation in morale, cohesion and effectiveness. We unpack what that claim means, what the evidence is, and what it changes.

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Summary of "Russia's Army is Exhausted" Analysis

This video examines claims that Russia's military is reaching critical degradation in morale, cohesion, and effectiveness despite Kremlin propaganda suggesting otherwise.

Key Arguments

The Exhaustion Thesis
• Russia is "grinding" rather than winning, with its army being consumed by the war effort
• Exhaustion is measurable through manpower constraints, psychological degradation, and operational limitations
• The Russian military increasingly fights "from absence of alternatives" rather than conviction

Three Main Evidence Points

1. Manpower Crisis
• Russia avoids full mobilization due to political risks (remembering 2022's mass exodus)
• Relies on expensive contract recruitment with regional bonuses
• Some regions are reducing signing bonuses due to economic strain
• The system functions like a "military meat dispensing vending machine" requiring endless funding

2. Cohesion Problems
• Army cohesion maintained through fear, which is inherently brittle
• Soldiers expect punishment, see no future, and face pervasive corruption
• Even claimed recruitment of 410,000 contract soldiers in 2025 doesn't negate systemic exhaustion

3. Operational Limitations
• Russia cannot sustain simultaneous offensives across multiple directions
• Increased use of disposable light vehicles (motorcycles, buggies) - "10 times more than last year"
• Forced into strategic tradeoffs about where to attack

Strategic Implications
• Russia's exhaustion creates leverage - if Western allies choose to exploit it through tighter sanctions and sustained military aid
• Exhaustion doesn't guarantee defeat - Russia can remain lethal while degraded
• Russia's military spending is unsustainable - 15.5 trillion rubles in 2025, cushioned by partnerships with India and China
• The West should accelerate Russia's limits rather than assume inevitable Russian victory

The analysis concludes that treating Ukraine's survival as essential to Western deterrence posture is the correct strategic response.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. Who is surprised by this?

These losses are not sustainable

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