Israel in 2026: Elections will be a referendum on the legacy of 7 October - and the future of the social contract

[sabbat hunter]

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/israel-2026-elections-will-be-referendum-legacy-7-october-and-future-social-contract

With all the protests against the current government in Israel, how is it that the opposition is not polling better? Elections must be no later than October 7th, possibly sooner if a budget isn't passed by March 31st. Some polls show that Likud, led by Bibi, still would come in first place with the most mandates (seats), although well short of a majority.
The Blue and White party might even fall out of the Knesset if elections were held today.

There is talk of a merger of anti-Bibi parties, which would then be the biggest party, well short of a majority. It would require support from other parties, including traditionally Israeli-Arab parties.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/polls-bennett-lapid-eisenkot-merger-would-lead-polls-but-not-change-overall-result/

If the merger materializes, Zman predicts 36 seats for the merged party, 25 for Likud, 9 each for Yisrael Beytenu and Shas, 8 each for the Democrats and United Torah Judaism, 6 each for Otzma Yehudit and Ra’am, 5 for Hadash-Ta’al, and 4 each for Blue and White and Religious Zionism.

The pro-Netanyahu bloc gets 52 seats and the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc gets 53 seats. The Arab parties stay at 11, while Blue and White stays at 4.

The Anti-Bibi block would then need support, either in a full coalition, or at least support on budgetary matters from the Arab bloc.