Besides Harris' very decent record on queer and trans issues (albeit limited by her roles at times), there is another factor to consider.
If your friends (or their friends) have benefited from access to gender confirming hormones, surgery, civil protections, or document changes -- they need to understand that all that will go away very quickly, if Trumpists gain power.
Some of these predictions are based on explicit details from Project 2025, while others are more vague, yet have already been tried out by red states, who have been coordinating their efforts to see how extreme policies can go without pushback.
Insurance will no longer cover access to trans care. It's not clear if coverage will be outlawed, but it will go away for subsidized care (Medicaid, Medicare, VA). It will go away entirely for minors. Testosterone is currently under examination for de-scheduling (possession without prescription is a felony); that effort will cease. Indeed, any mention of sexual orientation and gender identity will be removed from policies and data collection(!) - so not only with queer folk be affected, but the fight to end HIV/AIDS too. (Oh, and forget PrEP - coverage for sure, access very likely.) It is possible that if Trump appoints a malleable, corrupt head of the FDA, prescribing hormones for gender confirmation - will be outlawed, regardless of the patient's age. That would be a very fast and simple change, by appointment.
Surgery will once again be out of pocket -- and mostly out of country. In January I spoke with a long-term, well-known surgeon (with both FTM and MTF patients, who also has taught many other surgeons). He is leaving the country if Republicans win, and knows of many others.
Some states are already halting (and at least one state reversing) gender marker changes. Of course it is already illegal for many of us to use public restrooms in some red states. I cannot travel to Florida - as a fully bearded man with a baritone voice - and legally use any airport bathroom unless it's the women's restroom.
I haven't heard projections about what people will do who either have state or federal ID with an "X" gender marker. At best, being "allowed" to get a replacement will likely be the outcome.
There is also language in Project 2025 that implies that LGBTQ people who are out -- or who do not pass at every level as straight/non-trans -- will be prevented from working with children, and excluded from other jobs. They are linked to "pornography," and pornographers will be imprisoned.
Those are just a few of the consequences that have publicly available "evidence" for being listed here. And as bad as Project 2025 is, one of the Heritage Fdn heads said the other week that there is a _lot_ more detailed plans which have not yet been made public.
If we end up with a trumpist regime, and there were trans or queer folk who abstained from voting at all, I hope they don't try to cadge some pity from the rest of us. Pity will be in very short supply.
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