Here's why experts say the US may be fooled by improving Covid-19 numbers and what that means for th

[nitpicker]

https://us.cnn.com/2021/03/12/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

Here's why experts say the US may be fooled by improving Covid-19 numbers and what that means for the summer

By Madeline Holcombe, CNN

Updated 11:27 AM ET, Fri March 12, 2021

(CNN)Covid-19 numbers may be on the decline in the United States after a year of collective grief. But with tens of thousands of deaths expected over the next few months, experts are warning Americans not to drop their guard just yet.

"I think we are going to get fooled," Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia said Thursday. "I think what's going to happen is you're going to see that as we enter the summer months, numbers are going to go down, people will think great, we're good." He added: "And then, if we don't get to what I think is going to be at least 80% population immunity from natural infection or immunization, when the winter comes, you're going to see a surge again."

Over the last seven days, the US has averaged 56,240 new cases per day -- the lowest it has been since mid-October -- and 1,437 deaths per day, which is the lowest the country has seen since November 19.

But if policies stay in place as they are now, about 23,000 more people could die of the virus by April, according to a projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Yet many states have begun to relax measures, including mask mandates. And because of fewer masks and more people moving around with more transmissible variants, IHME increased its prediction of Covid-19 deaths by July 1 by an additional 22,000 people. Overall, the IHME predicts nearly 600,000 Covid-19 deaths by July 1, up from the current number of around 530,000 recorded fatalities.

What the US does next could impact the trajectory of the pandemic, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said in an NBC Nightly News interview.
(snip)

[SleeplessinSoCal]

1. People are getting vaccinated quickly now.

Delays should end within weeks and we may have herd immunity by August.

[zipplewrath]

2. Two things

1) Way more people have been infected than we know. Easily 30% or more have already been infected and don't know it.

2) By the fall, when a new surge starts to occur, it will be predominately among people that refused to get the vaccine, and weren't unknowingly infected. I'm far more worried about a significant variant such that the vaccines lose much of their effectiveness, especially in the most vulnerable groups.

[littlemissmartypants]

3. We are nowhere close to slaying this dragon.

Unfortunately, some will die and many will be infected as a result of naiveté and Covid fatigue combined.

[underpants]

4. Numbers are down but are they near normal levels for other countries?

Are the still more than other countries now or at their peak?

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. I heard earlier today on NPR that Italy is resuming a lockdown

because of their increasing numbers.