US could be on the cusp of a surge in Covid-19 infections, but vaccinations will limit the damage

[nitpicker]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

US could be on the cusp of a surge in Covid-19 infections, but vaccinations will limit the damage
By Christina Maxouris and Eric Levenson, CNN

Updated 11:37 AM ET, Thu March 18, 2021

(CNN)The US may be on the cusp of another Covid-19 case surge, one expert says -- but the mass vaccination of the most vulnerable Americans is likely to limit its human cost.
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Health officials have repeatedly warned about a potential fourth surge as state leaders eased restrictions and several lifted mask mandates. The first warning sign came when case numbers, after weeks of steep declines, appeared to level off -- with the country still averaging tens of thousands of new cases daily. That kind of plateau previously predicted surges, some experts have said.

Cases of the worrying variants -- notably the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant -- have also climbed and are set to become the dominant strain by the end of March or early April.

Meanwhile, governors and local leaders have eased restrictions on indoor gatherings, citing fewer Covid-19 cases and more vaccinations. And spring break crowds are gathering in Florida and nationwide air travel numbers are hitting pandemic-era records.

Now, as the country inches closer to 30 million reported infections, cases are rising by more than 10% in 14 states this week compared to last week, according to Johns Hopkins University data -- with half of those states seeing a rise of more than 20%.

If Covid-19 cases continue to rise, the mass vaccination of our most vulnerable are likely to limit increases in hospitalizations and deaths. People age 65 and older make up more than 80% of all Covid-19 deaths, according to CDC data. Yet more than 65% of people 65 and older have had at least one vaccine dose, and 38% are fully vaccinated, which sharply cuts down on the risk of hospitalization and death.

Dr. Wen still has her concerns, though. "I think we're going to see an increase in the number of infections, but not necessarily an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, which again is a really good thing," she told CNN on Thursday. "But we also note that many governors are not going to reimpose restrictions unless we see our hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

"So we could see a situation of a lot more infections outpacing the ability of our vaccines to work and people letting down their guard but not having the restrictions in place to curb it. And I fear that we may lose, as a result, this race of variants versus vaccines."

Michigan cases are increasing the fastest, with more than a 50% jump this week compared to last, according to the Johns Hopkins data. Delaware, Montana, Alabama and West Virginia have also seen big increases.
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[Martin68]

1. A surge is possible, of course, but the rates of vaccination is going up exponentially.