Stop counting warships. China's special-operations forces are Taiwan's real problem.

[soryang]

Lyle Goldstein, Defense Priorities Jan 2, 2022, 7:17 PM

In December, two Chinese carrier battle groups went to sea simultaneously for the first time. They did so only weeks after the Chinese Navy's newest large helicopter carrier began its sea trials.

These are major milestones for the PLA Navy, which is clearly advancing quickly in all respects. Yet they may be a red herring when it comes to the "the most dangerous place on the planet," as the Economist accurately described the Taiwan situation last year.

Indeed, China does not require large and advanced warships to attack the island. This is quite easily grasped if one simply looks at a map and sees that the medium-sized island is less than 100 miles off of China's coast...

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-special-operations-forces-are-taiwan-real-problem-not-warships-2021-12

Not sure I entirely agree with his assessment, but there are some interesting ideas in here.

[DarthDem]

1. Disagree

There will be no attack on Taiwan for at least three reasons.

1. The PRC would instantly become an international pariah. Massive economic sanctions would be imposed immediately. In addition, naturally their actions would destabilize markets even without any sanctions. This is utterly counterproductive for the PRC.

2. Half of Taiwan (the Eastern half, I believe) is a Vietnam-like jungle environment. The PRC could be bogged down there for years upon years. And that's if they even get to the island, which I'm not even covering here.

3. Invading is one thing - and there are many reasons to think an invasion would be difficult or impossible, despite the much-ballyhooed Chinese military capability. HOLDING the territory is another. So they're going to occupy Taipei and the rest of the urban areas for . . . how long? Forever? While installing a puppet government? Without any popular uprisings or international resistance?

It's not going to happen.

[Mary in S. Carolina]

2. The US will freeze

all their assets including the assets of their private citizens