Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo

[True Dough]

The 168-pound crown is on the line Saturday night in Las Vegas as Saul "Canelo" Alvarez 59-2-2 (39 KOs) meets Jermell Charlo 35-1-1 (19 KOs).


Charlo has the height and reach advantage. Both are 33 years old.


Vegas odds have Canelo as the favorite: Alvarez -400, Charlo +310


YouTube preview here:

&t=66s


Waiting on H2O Man's breakdown...

[H2O Man]

1. I favor Canelo.

He has more experience at the "big dance," and usually does very well. He is the naturally heavier man, used to fighting much bigger opponents. His body punches are intense, and he often follows them up with rapid, accurate combinations. He has learned how not to waste energy, allowing him to be better in the late rounds, compared to early in his legendary career.

However, Charlo is a very good fighter. Too early to say if he rates as great, but he is on that route. Though he is moving up in weight, that may be easierfor him than it is for Canelo to come down. He is very confident.

That's a quicj review. The co-feature is going on now. Glad I thought to check here and see your OP!

My son ran in one of those crazy 30+ mile races with 30 obsticals today in another state. I let him use my car -- his is in the garage. I haven't heard from him, and so won't be going to his place to watch it.

[H2O Man]

2. I listened to,

but could not see, the fight. Canelo was too strong, too good.

[True Dough]

3. Good call!

Charlo went the distance but it was clearly Canelo's fight.

Now, Alvarez said he wants Bud next. Crawford already said he's prepared to jump weight classes to face Canelo at super middleweight. If you are Bud's manager, do you advise him to take that BIG money fight, or do you encourage him to stick closer to his own natural weight?

If I recall correctly, Canelo moved up weight classes one at a time over years. He was methodical about it. As talented as he is, if Crawford packs on that much weight immediately, Canelo has to be favored for all of the reasons you listed above versus Charlo, no?

Hope everything is okay with your son.

[H2O Man]

4. I don't think

the fight adds to Canelo's legacy, or takes away from Charlo's. People tend to forget that even as a middleweight, Canelo re-hydrated and entered the ring at the same weight that Rocky Marciano fought at. Yet I still see some people saying that Charlo was "bigger" because he was taller. These are people who have never boxed, I assume. (Or id they did box, they took too many punches to the head.)

At this moment in time, I think Bud is the best active fighter. I'm not saying that only because of the Spence fight. Bud has crushed top oppents for some time. Yet if I were advising him, I'd recommend not fighting Canelo. While it would make for a huge pay-day, it is too big a jump in size. Could Bud win? It's possible, but not likely, due to size. Good big guys beat good small guys, and one can substitute "great" for "good" here.

However, it is not possible to convince certain fighters that they can't beat any/every one. For example, Ali could not have done what he did if he wasn't fully convinced he could beat anyone. And that was a factor in his loses, too. More recently, a lot of people found Floyd Mayweather to be obnoxious because of his view of himself as the "greatest." But someone with self-doubt could not have accomplished what he did in the ring. (I note that Canelo's team had said he would fight Floyd at a weight slightly below the limit, and Floyd jumped on that. He knew that a couple of pounds makes a huge difference. But his style was way different than Bud's.)

When I was a young fighter, a guy who had fought twice -- both times against my oldest brother, losing both in one round knockouts -- told my brother that while he really liked me as a person, he thought it odd that I was convinced I could beat any one in the ring (or outside of it). My brother told him that I couldn't do what I did, if I had any self-doubt. Not that I always won ..... for example, when I was 15, I watched an ex-Marine fighting in the Olympic trials on ABC's Wide World of Sports. I remember thinking, "I'd destroy him!" So I challenged him to a fight. I was too young to officially fight in the AAU, and I wasn't in his weight class. But going into the main event on that card, I was ready to beat his ass. But it didn't work out the way I planned! Ha!

[True Dough]

5. Good points, as always

I would add Roy Jones Jr. to the list of great fighters who couldn't have accomplished what he did without taking a great deal of risk.

Here's another question for you, H2O Man: we know what happened when Canelo met Floyd in the ring (already 10 years ago!). But what if prime Canelo had fought Floyd? Do you think he would have won? Or would Money Mayweather still have prevailed but by a closer decision? That's kind of any odd way to phrase it because one judge had it a draw, but she was an outlier and later resigned. The other two judges scored it comfortably for Floyd.

[H2O Man]

6. One of the

most important things is how much Canelo learned in his fight with Floyd. I'd compare it with what Angelo Dundee said about Ali -- that he Ali that left the ring after taking the title from Liston was a very different fighter than the one who entered the ring. Now, of course, Canelo lost, distinct from Ali's winning. But the Canelo who left that ring is the one that was transformed from a very good, potentially great fighter, to an elite, all-time great. Without that experience, his areer would have been different, including his prime.

It's hard to speculate ..... he entered the ring against Floyd at 180 lbs. Floyd entered at his natural weight, which was around the cusp of welterweight/ junior middleweight at that time in his career. One judge did have it a draw, and literally when it was announced, Canelo said , "It wasn't a draw." He knew he had lost. And the judge, who really had no qualifications beyond being married to a qualified referee/judge, was quietly suspended from judging fights, then went through the process of judging 4 rounders and working her way up. I will give her credit for being a bit more stupid than purposefully corrupt, though it's a close call there -- darned near a draw!

This is just my opinion, but I think of Floyd, at his best, rates at the very highest level, among very few champions in history. Those few guys always find a way to win in their most important fights, when they were fully prepared. I place Canelo in with the elite, all-time great champions, but not at the exclusive top of it. I think that Andre Ward would have beat him. For that matter, I think Dick Tiger would have. They rank in the elite level, too, but not that very thin layer at the top.

[True Dough]

7. Always appreciate the analysis, H2O Man

And you gave me a chuckle with the C.J. Ross corruption/stupidity almost being a draw comment!

[True Dough]

8. Just bumped into this post from last week

It highlights Floyd's defensive brilliance and his counter-punching prowess. He's been flawed as a human being at times, but in the ring he really is one of the greatest ever, as you say.

Link to tweet

[H2O Man]

9. Nice!

Thanks for that!

Floyd is a complex person. He had a good mother, and a criminal for a father. His father picked him up when he was little, and held him between himself and a guy pointing a gun at him. Then his father went to prison. That's why Uncle Roger became Floyd's best trainer -- and Roger was a much better pro than senior. All of that created on-going tensions throughout Floyd's career, including senior helping prepare Oscar for their fight.

When my son & I met Floyd, he was very different than the Floyd in front of a camera. His father was there, but I had no interest in talking with him.

There are a few people -- all top fighters -- who landed hard shots on Floyd. But no one landed two in a row. The only other fighter I can think of off hand that was true for was Ali in the first half of his career. And there have been some amazing defensively skilled fighters, such as Pea Whitaker. What added to Floyd was his counter-punching after an opponent missed a hard shot.