Playoff picture taking shape
After San Francisco's demolishing of Indianapolis on Monday night, ten of the 14 playoff spots have been secured - although playoff positions have yet to be determined. Unusually for this late date, as of now only one division has been secured, but this will change after next weekend. 14 teams have been eliminated, so eight teams are vying for these last four playoff spots.
Let's start with the AFC.
The Denver Broncos (12-3) are the favorites to get the #1 seed. They lead the AFC west by one game over the Chargers. Their final two games are against woeful Kansas City on the road and those same Chargers in the finale. The L.A. Chargers (11-4) host Houston next week and of course finish against the Broncos. Both teams have secured a playoff bid. If Denver wins out they take the #1 seed.
The New England Patriots (12-3) might get that coveted #1 seed if they win out, which they might. They host the Jets next week and then face Miami at home in the final game. If the Chargers beat the Broncos in week 18 but lose to Houston and the Patriots take care of business against weak opponents, the AFC playoffs will have to go through Foxboro; just like old times. Buffalo (11-4) are in the playoffs but cannot take the East unless New England falters and the Bills beat the Eagles and the Jets, both at home.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) once again have a winning record, and control their destiny in the AFC north, but they have not secured a playoff spot. If they lose their last two games, against Cleveland (road) and the Ravens (home), the Ravens (7-8) can still steal this division - if they can beat the Packers and the Steelers, both on the road. I don't think Cleveland will beat Pittsburgh, but crazy things have happened this season in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) are one of the surprises of the year. Their defense is solid and Trevor Lawrence is having a good season. They lead the south by two games over Houston, who have won 7 straight themselves. Jacksonville has an easier road to the division: at the Colts, hosting the Titans. The Texans of course play at the Chargers and host the Colts. The Jaguars are in the playoffs; the Texans are the best wild card hopeful remaining in the AFC. They're in if they win one more game.
The NFC playoff picture is taking shape.
The Seattle Seahawks (12-3) lead the best division in the NFL right now and control their destiny for the #1 pick. Beat Carolina and San Francisco, both on the road, and they play at home until they lose or get to the Super Bowl. The 49ers (11-4) and Rams (11-4) are both in the playoffs, and could also get the #1 seed. The Niners just need to win out, over the Bears and the Seahawks, both at home. The Rams need to win out and have a complicated set of circumstances, but on the plus side their two remaining games look winnable at least on paper: Falcons on the road, Cardinals at home.
The Chicago Bears (11-4) have gotten very good at capitalizing on opponent mistakes, and that as much as anything else is why they're in the playoffs for the first time since 2020. They can win the north if they win one of their last two games, but they're not going to be easy: San Francisco on the road and the Detroit Lions at home. The Lions (8-7) cannot win the north but they do still have a slim chance of making the playoffs, assuming they beat the Vikings and Bears, both on the road. They also need the Packers (9-5-1) to lose their last two games, against the Ravens and home and the Vikings on the road. The Packers have the best record of any NFC team not yet in the playoffs. Win either of their last two games and they're probably in the postseason.
The Eagles (10-5) have won the east and it's the first time in a long time that any team has won the east in back to back years. Their last two games are at Buffalo and against the Commanders at home. They are unlikely to get up to the #2 seed (but it's possible) and might drop down to the #4 seed if they lose these last two games and the Panthers win their last two.
The NFC south has been one of the worst divisions in the NFL for some time now, which is one of the reasons Tampa Bay (7-8) has won the division for several years running. But Carolina (8-7) has emerged this year with an energized defense and a pretty good running game, and the Panthers can win this division and host a playoff game if they just beat the Buccaneers in Tampa in week 18. Before that game Carolina faces the Seahawks at home. The Bucs play at Miami and host the Panthers in the finale.
Whew! After week 17, one week from today, it is likely that several divisions will be secured and a couple more playoff seeds will be decided. Right now, though, expect some exciting developments because this is the season anything can happen in the NFL.
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