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Related: About this forumSaturday Melissa advisories and more (about to get stronger)
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...MELISSA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
(snip)
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Saturday Melissa advisories and more (about to get stronger) (Original Post)
nitpicked
Saturday
OP
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)1. and the discussion (bolding mine)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/250843.shtml?
(snip)
Melissa is currently moving slowly northwestward (310/3 kt).
Steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa
is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of
Jamaica. A sharp but still very slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday and Monday night. Unfortunately, a large majority
of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on
Jamaica in about 72 hours. What's most concerning here is that the
island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall
and tropical-storm-force winds before the core--and strongest
winds--even reach the coast. An increase in forward motion is
expected by days 4 and 5, with Melissa accelerating northeastward
across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Although there are some speed differences among
the models, for the most part the cross-track spread is generally
small.
Although some westerly shear is likely to continue for the next few
days, high oceanic heat content and stronger upper-level
divergence should be able to support significant strengthening.
The dynamical model-based Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
(DTOPS) in particular are quite aggressive, showing a very high
probability of a 55-kt increase in intensity over the next 48
hours. In addition, 41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members
show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon (60
hours), which is the same time that the NHC forecast continues to
show a peak intensity of 135 kt. Although some slight weakening is
possible after 60 hours, possibly due to the circulation
interacting with land and/or an eyewall replacement, Melissa still
has a significant possibility of making landfall on Jamaica as a
major hurricane. Melissa could maintain major hurricane strength
when it reaches eastern Cuba, but increased shear should lead to
weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There
is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next
week. All preparations should be completed today.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.
4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In
eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides is increasing.
(snip)
(snip)
Melissa is currently moving slowly northwestward (310/3 kt).
Steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa
is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of
Jamaica. A sharp but still very slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday and Monday night. Unfortunately, a large majority
of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on
Jamaica in about 72 hours. What's most concerning here is that the
island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall
and tropical-storm-force winds before the core--and strongest
winds--even reach the coast. An increase in forward motion is
expected by days 4 and 5, with Melissa accelerating northeastward
across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Although there are some speed differences among
the models, for the most part the cross-track spread is generally
small.
Although some westerly shear is likely to continue for the next few
days, high oceanic heat content and stronger upper-level
divergence should be able to support significant strengthening.
The dynamical model-based Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
(DTOPS) in particular are quite aggressive, showing a very high
probability of a 55-kt increase in intensity over the next 48
hours. In addition, 41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members
show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon (60
hours), which is the same time that the NHC forecast continues to
show a peak intensity of 135 kt. Although some slight weakening is
possible after 60 hours, possibly due to the circulation
interacting with land and/or an eyewall replacement, Melissa still
has a significant possibility of making landfall on Jamaica as a
major hurricane. Melissa could maintain major hurricane strength
when it reaches eastern Cuba, but increased shear should lead to
weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There
is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next
week. All preparations should be completed today.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.
4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In
eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides is increasing.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)2. 8 am edt update (still a TS)
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
mwmisses4289
(2,537 posts)3. Yikes.
Melissa is basically stationary, and the central pressure is dropping fast.
Not a good sign.
Anyone in Melissa's path, take care!
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)4. 11 am edt still TS Melissa
((recon had to return to base))
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)5. and the discussion (bolding mine)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/250843.shtml
(snip)
Melissa is very nearly a hurricane. Data from both the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate the storm has become better
organized, with a 20 n mi eyewall that has been coming an going.
This structure has also been seen on radar images out of Kingston,
Jamaica. Compared to last night, Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data
indicates the tropical cyclone is much better aligned vertically,
though some residual eastward tilt with height exists in the
mid-levels. The peak flight level winds at 700 mb were up to 68 kt.
Using a standard 0.9 adjustment factor to surface winds yields an
intensity of 60 kt, but Melissa could become a hurricane at any
time, as other satellite intensity estimates already support a
higher value.
The initial motion is crawling along to the west-northwest,
estimated between aircraft fixes to be 285/1 kt. Now that the
tropical cyclone has become better aligned vertically, it should
increasingly feel the deep-layer steering, which has a slight south
of due-west component from the latest ECMWF steering diagnostics.
The spread in the model solutions even in the next 12-36 hours is
higher than usual, with the AI models, Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end of the
guidance envelope showing a westward or even west-southwestward
motion in the short-term, while the traditional dynamical aids
(ECMWF, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift
towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours. Still though, nearly all
of the reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS which has been
an eastward outlier since the storm formed) shows Melissa making
landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During
this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United
States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of
Melissa, which should result in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to
the northeast. While the guidance is in good agreement on this
general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there
remains high along-track spread in the solutions, best highlighted
by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible
locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast
of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a
touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but
converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little
on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence
to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which to date are the best
preforming track guidance this hurricane season.
Melissa seems to be shaking off the negative effects of westerly
shear now that the storm is becoming better vertically aligned.
Thus, it appears likely that a period of rapid intensification
will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters
(30-31C sea-surface temperatures) which is also over the highest
oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin, which will limit
initial ocean upwelling under the slow moving storm. Similar to the
previous cycles, roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show
Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that
intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a
possibility. After 48 h, inner core processes (such as eyewall
replacement cycles) could cause fluctuations in intensity, but
Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an
upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct
landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has
been made in the Atlantic Basin. Weakening is expected as Melissa
moves over the high terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with
further weakening expected thereafter as southwesterly vertical wind
shear increases. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance, but closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
which has also been on of our best intensity guidance performers
this year.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. A
life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed
today.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing.
(snip)
(snip)
Melissa is very nearly a hurricane. Data from both the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate the storm has become better
organized, with a 20 n mi eyewall that has been coming an going.
This structure has also been seen on radar images out of Kingston,
Jamaica. Compared to last night, Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data
indicates the tropical cyclone is much better aligned vertically,
though some residual eastward tilt with height exists in the
mid-levels. The peak flight level winds at 700 mb were up to 68 kt.
Using a standard 0.9 adjustment factor to surface winds yields an
intensity of 60 kt, but Melissa could become a hurricane at any
time, as other satellite intensity estimates already support a
higher value.
The initial motion is crawling along to the west-northwest,
estimated between aircraft fixes to be 285/1 kt. Now that the
tropical cyclone has become better aligned vertically, it should
increasingly feel the deep-layer steering, which has a slight south
of due-west component from the latest ECMWF steering diagnostics.
The spread in the model solutions even in the next 12-36 hours is
higher than usual, with the AI models, Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end of the
guidance envelope showing a westward or even west-southwestward
motion in the short-term, while the traditional dynamical aids
(ECMWF, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift
towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours. Still though, nearly all
of the reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS which has been
an eastward outlier since the storm formed) shows Melissa making
landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During
this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United
States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of
Melissa, which should result in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to
the northeast. While the guidance is in good agreement on this
general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there
remains high along-track spread in the solutions, best highlighted
by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible
locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast
of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a
touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but
converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little
on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence
to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which to date are the best
preforming track guidance this hurricane season.
Melissa seems to be shaking off the negative effects of westerly
shear now that the storm is becoming better vertically aligned.
Thus, it appears likely that a period of rapid intensification
will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters
(30-31C sea-surface temperatures) which is also over the highest
oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin, which will limit
initial ocean upwelling under the slow moving storm. Similar to the
previous cycles, roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show
Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that
intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a
possibility. After 48 h, inner core processes (such as eyewall
replacement cycles) could cause fluctuations in intensity, but
Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an
upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct
landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has
been made in the Atlantic Basin. Weakening is expected as Melissa
moves over the high terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with
further weakening expected thereafter as southwesterly vertical wind
shear increases. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance, but closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
which has also been on of our best intensity guidance performers
this year.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. A
life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed
today.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)6. 2 pm edt update (early release for the upgrade to hurricane) (with updated snips) (bolding mine)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/251732.shtml
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...MELISSA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
(snip)
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward or westward motion is expected today through
the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend
and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by
the middle of next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to occur over
the next couple of days and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across eastern
Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday but exact storm totals are still
uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti and portions of Jamaica, with the
possibility of catastrophic flood impacts also extending across the
remainder of southern Haiti into southern Dominican Republic.
For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local
amounts to 15 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
(snip)
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...MELISSA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
(snip)
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward or westward motion is expected today through
the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend
and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by
the middle of next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to occur over
the next couple of days and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across eastern
Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday but exact storm totals are still
uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti and portions of Jamaica, with the
possibility of catastrophic flood impacts also extending across the
remainder of southern Haiti into southern Dominican Republic.
For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local
amounts to 15 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)7. 5 pm edt Melissa on the increase
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
nitpicked
(1,486 posts)8. and the discussion (bolding mine)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/812062.shtml?
Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI).
Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled
the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to
improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the
center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images.
The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of
Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an
earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed
a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger
of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from
SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial
intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these
intensity estimates.
The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an
estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in
to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature
over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly
westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight
southward component, and it wouldn't be surprising to even see a
little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind
ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term
forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north
becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the
southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic
pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly
northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next
week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more
tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z
GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better
agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in
Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of
acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the
northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track
direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day
3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more
poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours,
and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This
track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance.
On this track, this brings Melissa's core near Jamaica early on
Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces,
where a hurricane watch is now in effect.
Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa
stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days,
there appear few impediments to its intensification in the
short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google
DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48
hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble
are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z
HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours,
and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off
over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity
forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement
with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core
oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to
fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It
is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference
in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and
Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over
Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some
weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm
will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major
hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only
after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in
earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall
guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which
has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year)
and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak
intensity of at least Category 4 intensity.
Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of
catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica
and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area
currently under a Hurricane Warning.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is
likely. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along
portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations
should be completed today.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the
country.
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.
(snip)
Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI).
Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled
the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to
improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the
center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images.
The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of
Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an
earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed
a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger
of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from
SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial
intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these
intensity estimates.
The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an
estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in
to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature
over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly
westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight
southward component, and it wouldn't be surprising to even see a
little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind
ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term
forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north
becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the
southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic
pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly
northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next
week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more
tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z
GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better
agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in
Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of
acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the
northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track
direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day
3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more
poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours,
and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This
track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance.
On this track, this brings Melissa's core near Jamaica early on
Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces,
where a hurricane watch is now in effect.
Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa
stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days,
there appear few impediments to its intensification in the
short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google
DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48
hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble
are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z
HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours,
and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off
over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity
forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement
with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core
oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to
fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It
is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference
in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and
Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over
Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some
weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm
will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major
hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only
after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in
earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall
guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which
has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year)
and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak
intensity of at least Category 4 intensity.
Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of
catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica
and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area
currently under a Hurricane Warning.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is
likely. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along
portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations
should be completed today.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the
country.
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.
(snip)