'It's a signal': What a poll out of Iowa can and cannot tell us about the election - Deadline - MSNBC

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MSNBC senior political analyst Matt Dowd and co-host of MSNBC's "The Weekend," Michael Steele, join Nicolle Wallace to discuss Ann Selzer's poll in the Des Moines Register that put Vice President Kamala Harris ahead by 3 points in a state Trump won by more than 8 points in 2020 - and what it could mean about the state of the race just a day away. - Aired on 11/04/2024.

[TwilightZone]

1. It can tell us it's one data point in a sea of them.

The campaign is downplaying the poll and saying not to read too much into it.

That's basically the approach I'm taking. Would it be great if she won Iowa? Of course. Would it be a shock? Not really -- the race had already shifted from +18 Trump before Biden withdrew to +4 Trump in September, so the trend appears to have been a thing for a while.

I think it's only surprising now because so few polls have been done in Iowa. Had there been regular polls, It might not be so surprising.

And, of course, it could prove not to be indicative of anything. We'll know soon.

[Bluetus]

2. It would be no more surprising than the Kansas vote

to reject their Republican abortion ban.

It isn't terribly important to this election. That is to say, if Harris wins Iowa, that story will be eclipsed by the size of the landslide, when the legacy media has all been saying this is the tightest election ever.

But it is a hugely significant poll because it comes from one of the most respected pollsters, It suggests that, at worst, Harris will lose Iowa by a small margin, and Iowa would have been in play had here been enough time and money to include Iowa in the strategy.

That's the story. If we can compete in Iowa, we can compete in 48 states -- maybe not Alabama and Mississippi. It takes a great candidate who isn't afraid to reject the Beltway advice to play everything safe.