Let's talk about Trump, Obama, Bolton, and the Metal Shop Guys.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump, Obama, Bolton, Iran, and the Metal Shop guys.

This is part of an ongoing series answering questions from guys who listen to the show while at work. Here's the message.

Belle, think we've got one that everybody wants to know the answer to. What's up with John Bolton? Back in March, he wanted regime change, but he was worried Trump wasn't the man for the job. Now he thinks the ceasefire is a bad idea. I know everybody thinks the man is just evil, but from what I've gathered, he's evil, but always has a plan. What's he getting at?

Bolton always has a plan. As we said back in March, I'll put the link below. He supports regime change in Iran. And he was worried because he thought Trump would well do exactly what he did and make a mess of things. And now he's kind of just fallen into the role of sportscaster who really knows the game announcing for the neighborhood Sandlot team that's making up rules as they go.

If I had to guess what Bolton's thinking, it would be something along the lines of I really want regime change in Iran. Blah blah something about American interests, but Trump isn't bright enough to pull this off so he really shouldn't try. and it looks like he's going to.

Then Trump did everything he was worried Trump would do and his thinking became, "We're in a mess now. The only thing to do is keep hitting them and don't give them a break.”

I want to stop here and explicitly state that I don't agree with Bolton. We need to get out or I think we're going to end up sucked into an extended conflict for no discernable benefit to anybody.

But why do I think that's what Bolton's thinking? He's kind of said all of this recently, just not all at one time so unless you're around foreign policy junkies all the time, you wouldn't know. On the 19th, he was on CNN and said, "I think it was a mistake to have the ceasefire. They've got now a two-week breather where they're doing what they can to recover, regroup, get ready for the next phase of the war. We never should have let up on them."

Then followed that up with "I don't think the president's making geostrategic decisions. I think he's making domestic political decisions.” Then he criticized Trump's negotiating team and also said, "I think they smell panic in the White House. I think they can see Trump wants out of this. He's broadcasting it almost every day, and it gives the Iranians enormous leverage they shouldn't have."

Then on the 21st, he posted to his social media, "Trump wants out of Iran for domestic political reasons, but he knows that making a deal resembling the 2015 Obama deal, or one that suggests he's cutting and running, will hurt him politically. If he extends a ceasefire in Iran, it will confirm he only wants a deal.”

If you put all of this together, Bolton thinks Trump is coming off as weak. But if Trump wasn't pulling his chicken and waffles routine, he'd be able to get an Obama style deal. Bolton certainly appears to believe the best Trump can hope for is what Obama already got.

Again, I think it's time for the US to get out. I don't think Trump can fix what he decided to break for no reason.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.