Let's talk about Trump's $1776 payout and the economy.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's $1,776 payout to troops and the economy.

Trump announced that troops would get a one-time payment of $1,776 to mark the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. It would theoretically include about 1.45 million people. So, let's go through Trump's claims and then the
reality.

Trump said, quote, "Because of tariffs, we are sending every soldier $1,776 and the checks are already on the way. Nobody deserves it more than our military. We made a lot more money than anybody thought because of tariffs."

That would be cool. But according to the Yale Budget Lab, we're getting hit with an overall average effective tariff rate of 16.8%.
Which is the highest since 1935. The average cost of those tariffs per household is currently figured at $1,700. So it'll cover the tariffs and a couple of trips to the shop at.

Now the obvious question about all of this is how does he plan on getting this appropriated? However, according to reporting, the
money isn't coming from tariff revenue at all and is instead coming from repurposing money approved through the one Big Beautiful Bill that was slated for military housing. The plan that will cost about $2.5 billion apparently came together about 30 minutes before it was announced. It apparently applies to all troops from O6 down to E1.

Dancers in Columbus are going to have a good month injecting a couple of billion into the economy while Trump calls affordability a con job and hoax and simultaneously saying the economy is Biden's fault, while also saying it's doing great is
certainly a mixed bag of messaging.

Trump's economic messaging woes are getting worse as time goes on and unemployment goes up. While his inflation report is now being called out as incomplete, to put it nicely, not just by financial analysts and outlets, but by major outlets.

In fact, the only economist I've seen that seems to be accepting the report at face value is the person rumored to be on the short list for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Hassett, who said, quote, "I'm not saying that we are going to declare victory yet on the price problem, but this is just an astonishingly good CPI report. Appearing to cosign this report is not going to inspire confidence from the investment world if he does end up in the big chair at the central bank. I mean, even Reuters is calling it
distorted and CNBC is talking about the empty data squares, particularly dealing with the key part of what's used to calculate housing inflation.

The next report had better cross all the t's and dot the i's or we'll start to see the reports to be viewed with skepticism by default which will set up a loss of confidence in financial numbers which will shake the market more widely. The markets run on estimates and hate uncertainty. Causing uncertainty about the estimates is just all bad.

We'll keep watching this develop. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.