General Discussion

EdmondDantes_

(1,571 posts)

28. Not necessarily.

Wed Feb 11, 2026, 12:47 PM

Wednesday

A new business is estimated to have x employees on average. Today maybe businesses have fewer employees because of productivity gains, perhaps they fail faster. Regardless there was a change in that calculation that resulted from consistent larger than historical errors.

"Since the 2020 benchmark, CES estimates have been subject to persistent and relatively large birth-death forecast errors. To help address these forecasting issues, BLS modified the model-based component of birth-death by incorporating current sample information to inform the forecasts starting with the 2024 benchmark released with the January 2025 Employment Situation. This modification was initially only applied from April to October 2024, known as the post-benchmark period. November 2024, December 2024, and January 2025, as well as monthly estimates, did not at the time use birth-death components calculated with this modification."

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm

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You have no clue what you're talking about Wiz Imp Wednesday #12

Slow your roll WSHazel Wednesday #15

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I get that for the most part WSHazel Wednesday #18

Last time I respond to you but to repeat, you have no clue how the Benchmark revision process works. Wiz Imp Wednesday #21

I understand what the words say WSHazel Wednesday #23

Extremely weak & misleading explanation. Wiz Imp Wednesday #19

Not necessarily. EdmondDantes_ Wednesday #28

Wow! Dunning Kruger in action! Wiz Imp Wednesday #17

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Right here: Wiz Imp Wednesday #22

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One final thing. Wiz Imp Wednesday #27

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