(November, 2025) "In an unprecedented fusion of trade law, financial speculation, and constitutional brinkmanship, Wall Street firms are now buying up the rights to tariff refunds from U.S. importers, wagers that hinge on the Supreme Court striking down President Trump’s emergency tariffs. This speculative market, quietly ballooning into the billions, reflects both the desperation of cash-strapped importers and the opportunism of hedge funds and brokers who see a potential windfall if the Court rules the tariffs illegal."
"The emergence of this market is not just a financial story it’s a symptom of deeper dysfunction in U.S. trade governance. It exposes the fragility of emergency powers, the vulnerability of SMEs to policy shocks, and the growing role of private capital in arbitraging regulatory uncertainty. What began as a workaround for struggling importers has evolved into a full-blown asset class, with refund rights now traded like distressed debt or litigation finance."
"The Supreme Court is now set to hear arguments on November 5, with hundreds of billions in potential refunds hanging in the balance. The outcome could redefine the limits of executive authority in trade policy and set a precedent for future administrations." (The decision came down today.)
More at link:
https://www.peacocktariffconsulting.com/tariff-refund-gold-rush-how-wall-street-is-monetizing-trade-law-uncertainty/
And Commerce Secretary Lutnick's former firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, now run by his son, stands to make "astronomical" profit from this tariff refund scheme:
"Wyden, Warren Probe Lutnick Firm’s Potential Conflicts of Interest Related to Massive Tariff Bets
Following Reports that Cantor Fitzgerald, the Wall Street Firm Once Run by Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Now Run by Lutnick’s Son, Is Selling Tariff Bets, Senators Sound Alarm over Possible Conflicts of Interest and Insider Trading."
More at link:
https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-warren-probe-lutnick-firms-potential-conflicts-of-interest-related-to-massive-tariff-bets
There's no evidence (yet), but I strongly suspect Trump invested in this shady scheme.
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