Day 1461 of Putin's Three-Day War -- Paul Krugman

[erronis]

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/day-1461-of-putins-three-day-war

Courage, betrayal-- and reasons for hope

An excellent analysis by Paul Krugman. This was discussed today with Timothy Snyder on a joint video.

Source: Institute for the Study of War

Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Putin expected a quick Russian triumph -- reports are that he expected the Ukrainians to fold in days. He never said "three days," but this meme has become shorthand for his belief that it would be a walkover. Western military analysts who had bought into propaganda about Russia's military strength shared his assessment.

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I am not a military expert. But I pay attention to those who are -- especially Phillips O'Brien, who has been far more right about this war than anyone else I know. Furthermore, the future of the war will depend greatly on an issue I do know something about, Europe's ability to provide Ukraine with the support it needs. So I thought I would use the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the war to talk about where we are right now.

First, about the military situation. The maps at the top of this post show how the area of Ukraine under Russian control -- shaded pink -- has changed over the past year. You may ask, what change? Exactly. The Ukraine war isn't like World War II, in which breakthroughs could be exploited by armored columns sweeping into the enemy's rear. It's a war in which the battlefield is swarming with drones, where there isn't even a well-defined front line, and the "kill zone" within which even armored vehicles are basically death traps is many kilometers wide.

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As it was, Ukraine was able to hang on but not triumph. And now we have a U.S. president who clearly wants to see a Russian victory. He's unwilling or unable to openly throw America's weight behind Putin, but he has effectively cut off all U.S. aid to Ukraine. That's not hyperbole. Here are the numbers:



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