WOW! This is how Democrats could communicate! One of the best ads I've ever seen by the England and Wales Green Party!

[muriel_volestrangler]

31. By now, it's Reform who benefits from the split on the left

They've been ahead of the Conservatives in all recent polls. They are benefitting from the "we need new politicians" feeling on the right, like the Greens are on the left. If you regard Lib Dems as centre-left rather than centrist (I would, personally), then the split on left is between 3 parties in England (4 in Wales and Scotland, where the independence parties are left-leaning).

So we see, in an "MRP" poll that attempts to applies figures from national polls to each seat (about 630 in Great Britain - Northern Ireland having entirely different parties):
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20260423.html
Party-% of vote-seats
Reform 24% 188
Con 21% 159
Lab 17% 86
Green 15% 71
LibDem 11% 61
SNP 3% 44
Plaid 1% 17
Other 8% 6
('Others' who'd win seats are probably all ex-Labour - pro-Corbyn types, and who may now be in the "Your Party" party)
You could say that's right wing parties with 45% of the vote, getting 347 seats, and left with 47% getting 279.

I suspect that Reform, which has a history of selecting racist, misogynist, crooked etc. candidates, will bleed support from now on, but they could still be the most popular single party by the next election.