WOW! This is how Democrats could communicate! One of the best ads I've ever seen by the England and Wales Green Party!

[Emrys]

42. Just to add to Muriel's statistics there, and put Plaid Cymru and the SNP's polling in context,

bear in mind they only stand in Wales and Scotland respectively, so their percentages aren't directly comparable with UK-wide parties.

There's a good chance that both Plaid and the SNP will be the majority parties in their respective national parliaments. In a Welsh Parliamentary by-election last October, it was expected that Reform might win the seat due to Labour's atrocious polling. As it happened, Plaid Cymru won it (albeit with a very strong local candidate). See here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/108823606

This may be interesting with the dynamic of Reform's strong polling over the last year or so. There have been signs of slippage, and they've underperformed in the recent by-elections we've had. The Greens unexpectedly won the Gorton and Denton UK Parliamentary by-election in February - see here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/108823702

It's evident that tactical voting's playing a part, and that's where the existence of credible third parties beyond Labour and the Tories is important in fending off Reform, which has gained polling percentages from both Labour and the Tories.

In Wales, voters have the option of voting Plaid Cymru in seats where it looks like having the best chance of prevailing over Reform, and in Scotland voters have the SNP (not that Reform is as much of a credible challenge there as it is in the rest of the UK, though it's likely to scrape a number of seats thanks to the regional lists in the PR voting system). In the rest of the UK, the Greens are polling well enough that there are seats where they'd be a credible tactical vote.

Only Wales and Scotland are holding their parliamentary elections in this cycle, the rest of the seats up for grabs are in local councils, so they may serve as a handy reality check given some of the fevered polling out there.