NY-12: Crowded race to replace Nadler may be decided by older voters, new analysis finds [View all]
Young voters helped reshape New York City politics in 2025, turning out at record rates and helping power Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the mayoral race. But a new analysis suggests the Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District may be decided by a much older electorate.
The report, commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics, projects that voters age 50 and older will make up 65% to 75% of the electorate in the June 23 primary in the Manhattan district, which is choosing a successor to retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler. It projects an overall Democratic turnout of 70,000 to 85,000 voters.
That would mark a sharp contrast with the dynamics of last year’s city elections. The city’s Campaign Finance Board’s 2025 Voter Analysis Report found that young voters turned out at record levels, with turnout among voters ages 18 to 29 rising to 41.9% in the general election from 11.1% in 2021. The report said the city’s average voter age fell from 55 to 50.
The CFB report also said Mamdani’s campaign focused on affordability and mobilized young voters and first-time participants through social media, helping fuel an upset victory in the Democratic mayoral primary.
https://www.amny.com/news/ny-12-race-replace-nadler-decided-older-voters/
= new reply since forum marked as read