The British are as stupid as we are

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. It's not about the proportional representation - Reform were first in those five areas

which indicates they'd win at least 5 Welsh seats, probably several more, in the equivalent Westminster election (should be 2 Westminster seats to each Senedd area, and Wikipedia says that's how they were drawn). Yes, there may be enough time for them to show themselves to be useless/racist/otherwise undesirable, but the Welsh voted Leave in 2016, so I don't see the electorate as especially blessed with common sense.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/wales/results

Reform got 29.3% of the Welsh vote by voter. That's actually above their 26% of the GB national share that the BBC projected yesterday: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1428pev1n0t?post=asset%3A917c45ad-601c-4c78-a2ba-e3c146efeeac#post . But in Wales, Plaid took the majority of the non-RW vote, so came out ahead.