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bucolic_frolic

(55,719 posts)

101. The economic meltdown we're facing will develop in stages - by Christmas

Sun May 10, 2026, 03:29 PM

Yesterday

In this video, I argue that the current conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the USA could trigger a seven-stage global economic crisis that will unfold over the rest of this year.

We are already seeing rising oil prices, higher food costs, and growing fears in financial markets. But I suggest that this may only be the beginning.

I explain:

Why oil shortages matter far beyond petrol prices

How inflation could surge again

Why central banks may make the wrong decisions

How supply chains could begin to fracture

Why business failures may follow

And why this could eventually become a banking crisis bigger than 2008

This is not about panic. It is about understanding economic cause and effect before events spiral further out of control.

The political response so far has been dangerously complacent. Meanwhile, the economic consequences are already arriving in people’s daily lives.

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Highlight:

"EIGHT WEEKS TO EMPTY SHELVES. SIXTY DAYS TO FAMINE." EVERYBODY INSULT THE OP! [View all] CousinIT Saturday OP

This writer isn't an authority on the subject. His opinion is no more valuable than any of us. hedda_foil Saturday #1

But but but...He's a "spiritual guy"! A HERETIC I AM Saturday #7

We import most of our oil from Canada and Mexico. honeylady Saturday #45

Mexico, Canada enid602 Yesterday #89

There was an article posted a week or so stating that the last tanker of oil had reached LA. That gives US in2herbs Saturday #8

A bunch of pretty lame economic arguments here. Bluetus Saturday #41

Exactly. SergeStorms Yesterday #93

Sure, just like they did with ventilators during covid. hadEnuf Yesterday #94

Corporations are not citizens. And these are not Americans. Bluetus 22 hrs ago #106

Yes, the last tanker from the Middle East for California/West Coast DetroitLegalBeagle Saturday #58

The last tanker of oil from the Persian Gulf. Not the last barrel of oil period. hedda_foil Yesterday #104

This is the truth. Our inventories in the US are low Melon Saturday #21

We can always "frack" more oil, since it's still in the ground FakeNoose Saturday #26

I agree. Getting away from peak oil is good. But we aren't running out during this mess. Melon Saturday #31

I don't think it's a matter of running out of gas. It's more of a matter how much can Autumn 10 hrs ago #112

I agree but that is not what the OP was about Melon 9 hrs ago #113

My point was about about empty shelves and expensive gas. That's what I think will be the problem. Autumn 8 hrs ago #115

Yes, "we" do have a huge incentive to convert our homes and businesses to sustainable energy sources. ShazzieB Saturday #42

No apologies needed. sheshe2 Saturday #59

Thank you! ShazzieB Yesterday #74

You are not alone. sheshe2 Yesterday #75

Yes, ShazzieB Yesterday #102

"And we could and we did" sheshe2 Yesterday #103

Supposedly, most of the oil we produce isn't usable in the U.S. kerry-is-my-prez Saturday #50

That's not entirely true. Melon Saturday #53

Neither is the 'Resident of the US. sheshe2 Yesterday #76

One doesn't have to be an "authority"... GiqueCee Saturday #35

This country does not rely exclusively on oil from the Persian Gulf. hedda_foil Saturday #61

As our Dear Leader is fond of saying... GiqueCee Saturday #63

Of course we won't be fine. Rapenfuhrer is about to start the next worldwide depression with his little excursion --. hedda_foil Saturday #64

Awww... GiqueCee Yesterday #86

Yeah. I'm trying to look at the bright side. hedda_foil Yesterday #100

Not Exclusively Us A Huge Understatement ProfessorGAC Saturday #66

We've been hearing 20 percent since the start of the war. NH Ethylene Yesterday #95

I believe the 20% refers to the world supply of oil comes from there EX500rider Yesterday #96

490,000 Barrels Out Of Nearly 21 Million Consumption ProfessorGAC Yesterday #97

In early 2022, price if diesel reached $6 a gallon. Nobody starved. Kaleva Yesterday #80

The trucker guy I watch says this also. Blue Full Moon Yesterday #87

Maybe Maga will notice when there's a shortage of cheap beer Walleye Saturday #2

They would somehow blame Biden. Beartracks Saturday #28

Or Mountain Dew llmart Saturday #33

It is inflation. Metaphorical Saturday #3

This is sensationalism. bearsfootball516 Saturday #4

This is why Jilly_in_VA Saturday #5

July 4th. Smack dab on Trump's celebration day. oasis Saturday #6

Revolutions are fought by those whose ribs are easily counted . BattleRow Saturday #40

Please remember back to 1999 if you will. Airplanes will fall out of the skies, elevators will fall, ATMs wont give $$$ Srkdqltr Saturday #9

Worth reading NBachers Saturday #10

Not so much. It's a fantasy. Melon Saturday #32

Should I panic? sarisataka Saturday #11

This message was self-deleted by its author Qutzupalotl Saturday #14

IIRC, we export most of our oil. sakabatou Saturday #47

That's what the guy's write-up says. N/t CousinIT Saturday #68

I believe we are the number 1 oil producer sarisataka Saturday #60

Actually the US is the largest oil producer by far EX500rider Yesterday #91

I didn't know the poster I was replying to was being sarcastic Qutzupalotl Yesterday #98

You can bet your sweet ass popsdenver Saturday #12

Cool story bro JoseBalow Saturday #13

I expect reinstatement of the oil export ban. roamer65 Saturday #15

Why would gasoline be rationed if we have plenty of oil Melon Saturday #43

Because our old refineries were built to handle Gulf state crude oil. roamer65 11 hrs ago #111

Buy canned goods now. swong19104 Saturday #16

The US has been exporting more oil and petroleum products than it imports since August 2021. eppur_se_muova Saturday #17

And this is the reason I pooh-pooh all the hullabaloo slightlv Saturday #25

My alter ADHD will kick in. multigraincracker Saturday #18

Independence Day IronLionZion Saturday #19

Well, I don't think we're gonna all starve. But I am going to short the market.😀 ashredux Saturday #20

No, not everyone will starve... but their will be a LOT of hungry people... slightlv Saturday #27

25 Recs. flvegan Saturday #22

It's clickbait from an opinion blog IronLionZion Saturday #34

We should be thankful this wasn't passed off as LBN. NT mahatmakanejeeves Saturday #37

Thanks for the insult. CousinIT Saturday #69

Your OP was hostile to DUers obamanut2012 22 hrs ago #108

"Clock it"? GenThePerservering 22 hrs ago #109

52 demmiblue Saturday #39

One thing: The US produces oil itself and SELLs it to other countries dave99 Saturday #23

Yes and we've had a strategy for the last 50 years (thanks to Henry Kissinger) FakeNoose Saturday #65

WP: "Iran war is crushing Asia's farmers, threatening global food supply" Gaugamela Saturday #24

This is false information. James48 Saturday #29

I am a prepper but this is nonsense Keepthesoulalive Saturday #30

What about the fact that only 20% of the global moreland01 Saturday #36

There is a difference between Europe and the U.S. Europe has electric trains. We do not. LiberalArkie Saturday #38

What is the overall point? We aren't running out of diesel either. Melon Saturday #44

Did you read the WHOLE article? GiqueCee Saturday #46

Yes. That guy is saying hot garbage. Thus my response. Melon Saturday #48

Maybe worse case but I would bet the farm that supply and inflation will have a major impact by July yaesu Saturday #49

Liberation Day bucolic_frolic Saturday #51

$7.00/gal + here in WA pfitz59 Saturday #52

Well, one of the incentives for the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings to quickly end the war Wednesdays Saturday #72

I say bring it on Bluestocking Saturday #54

It seems like the comments here are mostly skeptical, but on Substack, they are mostly in agreement. ihaveaquestion Saturday #55

Oil tankers don't run on diesel. We don't "need" others oil either Melon Yesterday #77

"For two months, the world coasted on oil that was already at sea. That floating inventory masked the full scale of what riversedge Saturday #56

California made a decision to source petroleum and products from overseas Melon Yesterday #78

Yesterday I heard cattle herds haven't been this low since the 1950s FullySupportDems Saturday #57

Lots of angry reactions here on DU to this article Blaukraut Saturday #62

Yeah. They skimmed it, made assumptions, and then went right to pile-on attack mode. CousinIT Saturday #71

About 60% of the oil the US imports comes from Canada and Mexico Kaleva Yesterday #81

Yeah....no Boo1 Saturday #67

Hyperbolic Stuckinthebush Saturday #70

I recommend Mr Global on youtube D_Master81 Saturday #73

There is plenty of diesel fuel Kaleva Yesterday #79

This is simply not credible. Please don't give in to fearmongering and misinformation. Rainbow Droid Yesterday #82

Thank you for the warning! Kid Berwyn Yesterday #83

According to the US Energy Information Administration... jmowreader Yesterday #84

Original source talks about California, not the nation Kaleva Yesterday #85

What utter BS. The oil reserves are in the ground in Canada and US. Bev54 Yesterday #88

Remember when that Geology professor told us masks don't lessen the spread of COVID-19? Soul_of_Wit Yesterday #90

Why won't American oil companies either produce more or export less to meet the US demand. ChicagoTeamster Yesterday #92

The short answer is capitalism Soul_of_Wit Yesterday #99

The economic meltdown we're facing will develop in stages - by Christmas bucolic_frolic Yesterday #101

He says by Christmas. I said the early months of 2027. Wednesdays 19 hrs ago #110

America has oil. Trump is selling for the high prices and calling it 'revenue'. Norrrm Yesterday #105

Oh brother obamanut2012 22 hrs ago #107

US exports has risen to record levels Kaleva 9 hrs ago #114