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progree

(12,103 posts)
23. LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. Coming soon: The labor force dropped by 625k, Employed down by 695k
Fri Jun 6, 2025, 09:52 AM
Jun 6

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED - pretty much all the numbers you see reported in the media or BLS summary are the seasonally adjusted ones -- that certainly is true of the headline numbers -- nonfarm payroll jobs, unemployment rate -- as well as many others like the labor force participation rate. (I'm tired of seeing comments like the payroll jobs number is high this time because we're getting into the holiday hiring season, or low because we're done with the holiday season, or it's slow in August etc. Seasonal adjustments adjust for these seasonal cycles - that's why they are called seasonal adjustments)

BLS news release summary: https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The headline payroll job numbers (139,000 in May come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023: 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024: 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025: 111 102 120 147 139
The last 2 months (Apr and May) are preliminary, subject to revisions

Last 12 months: 144k/month average

# Employed in thousands (down 696,000 in May) come from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
If one adjusts the date range from 2021 to 2025, the graph is much more meaningful because it leaves out the huge swings of 2020 that greatly enlarges the Y axis and makes what follows look like tiny almost undiscernible squiggles around the zero axis
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022 1016 483 608 --315 487 --284 164 477 75 --126 --177 752
2023 958 178 417 162 --178 183 204 292 --33 --231 675 --762
2024 66 --177 412 70 --331 --9 64 206 377 --346 --273 478
2025 2234 --588 201 461 --696

Last 12 months: 176k/month average
January and February of each year are affected by changes in population controls.
A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats

A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats

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LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Table A - Summary of Household Survey (produces unemployment rate, labor force participation rate) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table B - Summary of Establishment Survey (produces the headline payroll jobs number and the average earnings) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisor Workers (PANSW)
. . . # INFLATION ADJUSTED Hourly Earnings of PANSW http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
. . . # INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of PANSW http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
----- Nominal means NOT inflation adjusted. Just plain ordinary greenbacks ----
. . . # Nominal Hourly Earnings of PANSW- http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008
. . . # Nominal Weekly Earnings of PANSW - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000030

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployed, Unemployment Rate
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
# Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
# White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
# Long term unemployed 27 weeks or longer as a percent of total unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13025703
------------ end unemployed, unemployment rates --------

# NILF -- Not in Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Job holders (Table A-9) - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026619

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
. . In Table A-1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm they show the same numbers for seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)

SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54 ("Prime Age" ): SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
. . . . . . Prime Age Men: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
. . . . . . . . . . . .From Jan 1960 to Jan 2025, Prime Age Men LFPR went from 97.1% to 89.4%. That means that the percent not in the labor force went from 2.9% to 10.6%, a 3.7 fold increase in this proportion.
. . . . . . Prime Age Women: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

More LFPR links including by race: https://www.democraticunderground.com/111695870

ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54 ("Prime Age" ): SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55-64: SA: ---------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Data series finder (employment/unemployment related): https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

The entire report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . Regular CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Core CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Energy: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0E?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF1?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Food at home (groceries): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF11?output_view=pct_1mth
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
. . . One Screen Data Search for CPI components: https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/cu

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789


Archives of previous reports - The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ). That opens up links to reports going back to 1994.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Does anyone believe any government stats right now? mdbl Jun 6 #1
You are absolutely correct, mdbl. pdxflyboy Jun 6 #2
I'll never believe anything these wankers say RoadRunner Jun 6 #5
Understandable, but these numbers are definitely legitimate. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #7
These numbers? Yes. I worked on this program for 30+ years. I know people who still work on the program Wiz Imp Jun 6 #6
Good to know. yardwork Jun 6 #11
So we are relying on the good will of people who are most definitely not afraid of losing their job? travelingthrulife Jun 6 #14
I guarantee you the people I know will resign before falsifying numbers. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #18
I Would Agree, But With A Word Of Caution DallasNE Jun 6 #41
Good Point. And those smaller sample sizes or lower response rates will certainly impact some BLS surveys. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #42
I call bullsh*t as well... ultralite001 Jun 6 #13
I for one have total confidence in our Dear Leader's Ministry of Truth. nt Xipe Totec Jun 6 #17
It may be more than expected, but that is not a good number. Anything under 150k is bad. everyonematters Jun 6 #3
Yep.... Hugin Jun 6 #9
True Rebl2 Jun 6 #27
This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Jun 6 #4
JFC people, this is a +44,000 report, that is, with the 95,000 downward revisions of the previous 2 months, there are. progree Jun 6 #8
This is a bad report Johnny2X2X Jun 6 #10
You did actually look at the graph. n/t Igel Jun 6 #44
This is the right way to look at it WSHazel Jun 6 #12
That's probably the closest that it's gotten to ADP's numbers BumRushDaShow Jun 6 #21
Private non-farm employment: ADP: +37,000, BLS: +140,000 progree Jun 6 #24
I remembered it from the OP Wednesday BumRushDaShow Jun 6 #25
One must always read to the end of the release to get the complete accurate picture of the new month's report. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #15
That is less job growth than April. The economy is slowing. OrlandoDem2 Jun 6 #16
Kick dalton99a Jun 6 #19
BFD!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jun 6 #20
Another solid report. America has more going for it than the whims of Donald Trump mathematic Jun 6 #22
LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. Coming soon: The labor force dropped by 625k, Employed down by 695k progree Jun 6 #23
Household Survey: Employed dropped by 696k, Labor force dropped by 625k, LFPR from 62.6% to 62.4% progree Jun 6 #26
My view, combing ADP and this report: resilience is fraying at the edges Bernardo de La Paz Jun 6 #28
I neglected the stimulus effect of "tax cuts" in the BBB, which are oversold, not needed, and costly Bernardo de La Paz Jun 6 #37
Investors are already looking to July's jobs report -- or even August's - Hamza Shaban, Yahoo Finance progree Jun 6 #29
Oopsie. The graph in the OP says, "2025 May 177k" progree Jun 6 #30
They did finally fix that and I updated the OP! BumRushDaShow Jun 6 #35
Is the report that Trump stopped from being released Owens Jun 6 #31
No, this jobs report was released on the normal first Friday schedule. The one you may be thinking of is a farm trade progree Jun 6 #32
He'll probably revise it with a Sharpie. benpollard Jun 6 #33
Gawd....the effects of these tariffs (when all are implemented unless TACO) will be months and months from now Bengus81 Jun 6 #34
The jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted /nt progree Jun 6 #36
True and with a best guess,same as in late fall with Christmas hiring. Bengus81 Jun 6 #38
You're right about a big seasonal upsurge this time of the year. +726k progree Jun 6 #39
A Word Of Caution DallasNE Jun 6 #40
NOT TRUE. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #43
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