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rpannier

(24,749 posts)

12. I'll throw in a guess... it depends

Wed Jun 25, 2025, 02:03 AM

Jun 25

Cuomo has filed as an independent (he did that prior to May 10). If he runs, he could steal votes from Mamdani -- but he will also likely take from Eric Adams (running as independent) and Sliwa.
If Cuomo doesn't run, then it's a case of how many older Black voters choose a different candidate. I don't know the breakdown of this vote, but polling prior to the election showed Cuomo doing well among older Black voters, and voters age 50-59.
If everything stays as normal Mamdani wins. If Cuomo plays sore loser, then it's a toss up (IMO)
I know very little about Jim Walden (he is likely a nothing running as an independent. But, I've read he has almost a million dollars on hand and could get a lot more from former federal prosecutors that support him). He has a reputation as a 'Good Government' guy. A somewhat deserved one, as well.

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Highlight:

Mamdani Stuns Cuomo in N.Y.C. Mayoral Primary, as Ex-Governor Concedes [View all] iemanja Jun 24 OP

There is going to be a generational change in the next few years. walkingman Jun 24 #1

Agree Deminpenn Jun 25 #17

Bye Bye Boomers North Coast Lawyer Jun 25 #44

I guess most New Yorkers don't want a sex pest as their mayor? Ocelot II Jun 24 #2

ME TOO!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jun 24 #4

ZOHHHHHRANNNNN!!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jun 24 #3

Zohran Kwame Mamdani is the type of young brown immigrant that enrages MAGAts IronLionZion Jun 24 #5

How do you think he'll fare in the GE? iemanja Jun 24 #6

Against Curtis Sliwa on the GOP side IronLionZion Jun 25 #7

how do things shake out if Mamdani, Cuomo, Silwa, AND Adams are in the race? cadoman Jun 25 #24

Pollsters would be wise to try asking it like that IronLionZion Jun 25 #25

The General election in November is NOT ranked choice. Wiz Imp Jun 25 #31

There won't be ranked-choice voting in November Polybius Jun 25 #29

Then there's Adams Polybius Jun 25 #26

Ranked choice should eliminate the risk of a spoiler IronLionZion Jun 25 #27

There's no ranked-choice voting in the general election in NYC Polybius Jun 25 #28

I suppose if the liberal vote splits among Mamdani and Cuomo, some break for Adams, and the conservatives vote Sliwa? LauraInLA Jun 25 #32

Hard to say, but I work with a MAGA who's voting for Adams Polybius Jun 25 #34

I'll throw in a guess... it depends rpannier Jun 25 #12

Lander stole votes from Cuomo. LisaM Jun 25 #39

Oh my! cannabis_flower Jun 25 #13

Watching Fox News highlights on social media the last 24 hours: Initech Jun 25 #41

CHANGE thought crime Jun 25 #8

Oh well, it's back to serial sexual harassment/assault for "Handsy" Andy. LudwigPastorius Jun 25 #9

Not to mention lying True Dough Jun 25 #15

I'm so proud of New Yorker's, tonight. Buddyzbuddy Jun 25 #10

Woohoo!!!! mahina Jun 25 #11

I could be wrong, but I heard that Cuomo hasn't decided whether to continue no_hypocrisy Jun 25 #14

I fully expect True Dough Jun 25 #16

It's over for Cuomo Deminpenn Jun 25 #18

I expect Mamdani to end up around 57% total, and +15% over Cuomo Wiz Imp Jun 25 #35

I was really close. It ended up 56% to 44%. Wiz Imp Jul 1 #51

this isn't stunning as much as it's the old Dems not being able to read the room. nt Javaman Jun 25 #19

just like they did with Obama ancianita Jun 25 #36

Jacob N. Kornbluh @jacobkornbluh : Mamdani getting more than 1,600 votes in AD48 Passages Jun 25 #20

Does anyone know what the total vote is there? I could look it up, but I'm lazy ;) LauraInLA Jun 25 #33

See below: Passages Jun 25 #38

Sounds nice but his goals seem rather 'pie in the sky' to me. travelingthrulife Jun 25 #21

Now the sex pest can take that vacation to Israel he always wanted. Crowman2009 Jun 25 #22

Did you see the debate clip about that? Pacifist Patriot Jun 25 #40

Oh yeah, talk about pandering! Crowman2009 Jun 25 #43

Our state rep Ikaika Hussey traveled the @5k miles to NYC to knock on doors for him. mahina Jun 25 #23

No more riding Mario's coattails for Andrew. JHB Jun 25 #30

I suspect the goons at Fox are thrilled about Sliwa's candidacy ificandream Jun 25 #37

I'm so happy bdamomma Jun 25 #42

Not a New Yorker but it seems to be mixed - TBF Jun 25 #45

He is obviously pro-Palestinian planj07 Jun 25 #47

I won't get into it - TBF Jun 25 #48

MAGA's stirring up efforts to get him deported now. Guess Bill Ackman, a MAGA moneyman who backed Cuomo... Lancero Jun 25 #46

Many wealthy people voted for Trump - TBF Jun 25 #49

He used to for Democrats, but flipped much like Musk did. More interest in money than morality. Lancero Jun 25 #50