Whether Texas Democrats have a fighting chance of taking Cornyns seat depends on who wins the 2026 Republican primaries. Paxton iisnt that popularexcept that the extreme right tends to prevail in Republican primaries. If Paxton beats Cornyn, it may just be possible for a Democrat to become a US Senator again.
I suspect that after over a year or so of Orange Julius reign, Texas Republicans are going to find themselves far less popular than they are right now. Orange Julius policies are going to hurt rural Texans: white, brown, and black, and the racism endemic in MAGA circles is finally going to make an impression on the non-voting Texas Latino population.
Texas is no longer majority-white. Currently, Texas Latinos outnumber Euro-American Texans. . I doubt that it could be made majority -white again even by deporting new-citizen Latinos and their children, and I suspect that theyll be angry. Those who remain eligible to vote might even be angry enough to vote, especially if theres a recession. Itll be an interesting race.