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DallasNE

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68. Both BLS And ADP Have Issues But ADP Has More Issues

Fri Jul 4, 2025, 12:03 PM

Jul 4

BLS is "non-farm payroll," and this means that most of the ICE related stuff is not reported by them. ADP reports mostly small to medium sized private employers (at least that was the case 25 years ago when I had to perform a conversion), so it misses most private workers and all government workers. To me, that still doesn't explain why the volatility is so high month over month - perhaps small sample size, when extrapolated, makes for big swings. Do "big picture" by including prior months adjustments in your analysis.

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U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected [View all] BumRushDaShow Jul 3 OP

Is the economic data being manipulated? Doodley Jul 3 #1

Due to all the court halts BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #4

Those numbers don't reflect what I see where I live mdbl Jul 3 #14

I, for one, do not believe this governmeont report. sinkingfeeling Jul 3 #2

I share your disbelief - it used to be adjusted months later rurallib Jul 3 #9

How come no Democrats are questioning the numbers? SCantiGOP Jul 3 #37

For reference, last month mahatmakanejeeves Jul 3 #3

I know that progree had been tracking the LPR for awhile BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #7

No worries... Hugin Jul 3 #5

The numbers reported are always seasonally adjusted. You don't need to use scare quotes. mathematic Jul 3 #27

Using so-called scare quotes is my right and privilege. Hugin Jul 3 #32

Kiss your rats cut goodbye, Krasnov speak easy Jul 3 #6

This doesn't jibe with the loss of 33,000 private sector jobs Ritabert Jul 3 #8

This article from yesterday (before this info was released) may provides some perspective... thesquanderer Jul 3 #11

Thanks but I still find the BLS finding questionable Ritabert Jul 3 #17

From CBS, 'Layoffs reach highest level since 2020, new data shows.' Hotler Jul 3 #23

That I believe. Ritabert Jul 3 #60

i know! I saw that as well..... samnsara Jul 3 #30

Yesterday's report was based on ADP figures, which aren't reliable. PSPS Jul 3 #38

I believe them over BLS. Ritabert Jul 3 #61

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 3 #10

lol. ok then. travelingthrulife Jul 3 #12

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 3 #13

Seems kind of odd given that private jobs were -33,000. travelingthrulife Jul 3 #15

Private jobs were +74k, not -33k. mathematic Jul 3 #21

so you are saying America is Great Again? uncle ray Jul 3 #16

Many people simply don't believe ANYTHING coming from the tRump administration groundloop Jul 3 #18

You actually believe this crap? And you joined DU just to post how great you think the regime is doing? sinkingfeeling Jul 3 #19

Sure we can Javaman Jul 3 #28

What do you credit this fantastic news to? Tariffs? marble falls Jul 3 #29

Why should we trust that this data wasn't manipulated, in light of everything else we know? nt pnwmom Jul 3 #64

Welcome to DU IronLionZion Jul 3 #20

What do you credit for that excellent news? marble falls Jul 3 #26

Welcome to DU. It's nice to see you. littlemissmartypants Jul 3 #62

Welcome to DU LetMyPeopleVote Jul 3 #67

Looks like they cooked the private payroll figure Historic NY Jul 3 #22

ADP's private-payroll customers are concentrated in small-business sector PSPS Jul 3 #39

This message was self-deleted by its author PennRalphie Jul 3 #24

"When I suggested that the booming economy should have been a major campaign." BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #31

This message was self-deleted by its author PennRalphie Jul 3 #33

Here in SE PA, we were IINUNDATED with ads BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #36

This message was self-deleted by its author PennRalphie Jul 3 #40

So you were watching EVERY media format 24/7 in order to determine that? BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #43

This message was self-deleted by its author PennRalphie Jul 3 #49

These people CHOSE to respond to cultural/wedge issues BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #53

This message was self-deleted by its author PennRalphie Jul 3 #56

I think the complete over-saturation of political ads BumRushDaShow Jul 3 #59

Pre-November, a lot of people didn't see the economy as being so great, and it wasn't progree Jul 3 #45

LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs - progree Jul 3 #25

Thank you! The actual jobs numbers can be very confusing, thanx again n/t Cheezoholic Jul 3 #42

And thank you, I appreciate that. It's all quite quite confusing, and baffling /nt progree Jul 3 #46

Yes, the one that gets me (and I believe was mentioned in the OP) is the people that fall off the Unemployment rolls Cheezoholic Jul 3 #66

Something smells fishy Fiendish Thingy Jul 3 #34

The break-even for job growth in the US is around 150,000... Hugin Jul 3 #35

Yesterday's report was from ADP, which reflects only a small slice of the workforce. PSPS Jul 3 #41

Yup, the ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce. progree Jul 3 #50

If we're going to talk about the ADP Employment Report, we should go to their site to see how they measure things. mahatmakanejeeves Jul 3 #44

I remember 200k as being the minimum new jobs JanMichael Jul 3 #47

Maddow Blog-New U.S. job numbers show 2025 is off to a discouragingly sluggish start LetMyPeopleVote Jul 3 #48

Hmmm, darn, that's right. Lowest January-June job growth since 2010 except for 2020 pandemic year progree Jul 3 #55

Yet ADP says otherwise Owens Jul 3 #51

Am I missing something here. republianmushroom Jul 3 #52

"Cook the Books" ZDU Jul 3 #54

Even Bloomberg is calling bs electricmonk Jul 3 #57

I found it - progree Jul 3 #63

Thanks for the additional info n/t electricmonk Jul 3 #65

So they hired back people they fired Tree Lady Jul 3 #58

Both BLS And ADP Have Issues But ADP Has More Issues DallasNE Jul 4 #68