The US economy grew at a 3.8% rate in the second quarter, significantly stronger than previously reported

[Wiz Imp]

33. A major reason for the increase is actually a quirk in how the GDP is calculated.

A significant drop in imports caused by the tariffs caused the GDP to rise (irrespective of any other factors). This is counter intuitive and quite frankly, leads to the GDP number being misleading.

The "import effect": Imports are a subtraction in the GDP calculation. During Q1, imports surged as businesses stockpiled goods in anticipation of new tariffs. When imports then fell sharply in Q2, it created a major boost to the GDP calculation, even though it didn't reflect booming domestic demand.

From Google AI Summary:

The headline 3.8% GDP figure for Q2 2025 paints an overly optimistic picture of the economy. The number was heavily distorted by the statistical effect of imports, even though consumer spending held up. Beneath the surface, signals like slowing job growth suggest the economy is on weaker footing than the single GDP number would imply, which is why policymakers and economists analyze a wider range of indicators.