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progree

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36. The reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted, that's why it's called "real GDP". The nominal dollar increase was a

Reply to lonely bird (Reply #22)

Thu Sep 25, 2025, 09:29 PM

Thursday

6.0% annual rate.

In all the decades I've been following this statistic, I'm never seen the media report the nominal rate aka current dollar rate. Because that's the number spoon-fed to them in the BEA reports.

"Real" means inflation-adjusted in BEA and BLS-speak
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent (revised).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-corporate-profits

3rd estimate

Real GDP and Related Measures
(Percent change from Q1 to Q2)

Real GDP 3.8
Current-dollar GDP 6.0
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers 2.9
Gross domestic purchases price index 2.0
PCE price index 2.1
PCE price index excluding food and energy 2.6

(for some reason or unreason, they drop the "annual rate" part of it, but these are annual rate numbers, i.e. quarterly increases annualized
Although below their graphs they have "seasonally adjusted annual rates"

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The US economy grew at a 3.8% rate in the second quarter, significantly stronger than previously reported [View all] BumRushDaShow Thursday OP

Sure it did. LudwigPastorius Thursday #1

First thing I thought: U.S. Commerce Department is putting out these numbers, Lutnick doesn't want to be fired. sop Thursday #2

If those numbers are accurate, maybe they represent spending before tariffs spooky3 Thursday #3

It includes Libation Day (sp) in April, with front running & all kinds of unusual adjustments by corps to TACO. Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #16

Sure, Jan. Scrivener7 Thursday #4

Awful that we have to wonder if official reports and stats are trustworthy. But there's good reason. And awful that wiggs Thursday #5

no need to decrease interest rates then, Mr Powell chicoescuela Thursday #6

So no more interest rate cuts? Raven123 Thursday #7

Has this been independently verified? greatauntoftriplets Thursday #8

The data for the next ten quarters is available and waiting to be released. twodogsbarking Thursday #9

Impossible Nigrum Cattus Thursday #10

Go to the web site or talk to an economist. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #17

Wait a while johnnyfins Thursday #11

Yes, the economy is artificially boosted by AI capex (data centres, energy) Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #19

The real data will be Tax receipts IbogaProject Thursday #29

AI Capex, while strong, is not driving GDP growth lapfog_1 17 hrs ago #53

They are moving to throw up data centres as fast as they can. There is construction, purchase of gas turbines, etc. Bernardo de La Paz 17 hrs ago #57

and there's swamp land in Yuma mdbl Thursday #12

Reporting anything less than 3x reality gets you fired ThoughtCriminal Thursday #13

You just shat on all the career professionals there. Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #18

Sure, blame our own ThreeNoSeep Thursday #24

How Dare You. Insulting people you don't know over facts you don't understand. Wiz Imp Thursday #31

Thank you. As if not getting fired automatically makes a worker corrupt. Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #34

That's all true OrwellwasRight Yesterday #42

Everything he said would prevent a political appointee from juicing numbers. Bernardo de La Paz 21 hrs ago #43

Thank you! You are right about everything. Wiz Imp 19 hrs ago #46

The process makes it virtually impossible. Wiz Imp 19 hrs ago #47

Nobody cares. Igel 10 hrs ago #66

And when the reports are especially bad, like the last 2 payroll jobs reports, and the May retail sales progree 7 hrs ago #67

Agreed - although I myself learned long ago that going through the mental contortions required to willfully Midwestern Democrat 2 hrs ago #68

Reporting it accurately in Trump's maladministration and you are fired. travelingthrulife 18 hrs ago #49

Elevated spending because costs are increased by tariffs? nilram Thursday #14

LOL. "revised higher largely due to new additional data" PSPS Thursday #15

For some reason, I'm sure you had no problems believing the 1st quarter GDP Wiz Imp Thursday #32

In Fairness RobinA 10 hrs ago #65

Does anyone trust any numbers from a Trump admin? ananda Thursday #20

I no longer trust numbers from trump LetMyPeopleVote Thursday #21

Hmmm lonely bird Thursday #22

The reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted, that's why it's called "real GDP". The nominal dollar increase was a progree Thursday #36

Okaaaay lonely bird 21 hrs ago #45

Cool story, bro🙄nt Javaman Thursday #23

I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, Hayabusa Thursday #25

... UpInArms Thursday #26

Bullshit. AltairIV Thursday #27

As the members of Delta Tau Chi would say it. CentralMass Thursday #28

Um! ProfessorGAC Thursday #30

The reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted, that's why it's called "real GDP". The nominal dollar increase was 6.0% progree Thursday #37

Thanks, I Missed That ProfessorGAC 21 hrs ago #44

But does "inflation-adjusted," adjust for tariff increases? Doodley 17 hrs ago #55

This message was self-deleted by its author progree 13 hrs ago #61

New answer: Apparently not, if AI is to be believed progree 12 hrs ago #62

Thank you for the info. So, tariffs could, at least partly, be distorting the numbers. Doodley 11 hrs ago #64

A major reason for the increase is actually a quirk in how the GDP is calculated. Wiz Imp Thursday #33

They're messing with the numbers. n/t aggiesal Thursday #35

Yah right Lemon Lyman Thursday #38

I don't believe it at all. CaptainTruth Thursday #39

I was expecting 38%, 3800%, or 38,000,000%. So disappointing. hay rick Thursday #40

I don't Rebl2 Thursday #41

Just like voting, Spending boycotts only work if people participate. Hotler 18 hrs ago #48

Instead of trafficking in conspiracy theories about how everything is "fake" (it's not) Wiz Imp 17 hrs ago #50

Sure it did. Ocelot II 17 hrs ago #51

I trust no numbers coming from this gang. Ritabert 17 hrs ago #52

nice, cnn! way to spin "inflation was even higher than previously thought" as a positive thing. unblock 17 hrs ago #54

The "personal consumption expenditures price index" is reportedly the Fed's favorite inflation gauge progree 12 hrs ago #63

Do we believe this? No. WhiteTara 17 hrs ago #56

I'm surprised they didn't report 38 percent Bristlecone 16 hrs ago #58

Yeah sure kimbutgar 16 hrs ago #59

I don't believe it. Paper profits, at best, outright lying and statistics manipulation at worst. /nt artemisia1 15 hrs ago #60