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progree

(12,831 posts)
4. The Fed lowering the Fed Funds rates will not bring down mortgage rates -
Thu Jan 29, 2026, 09:15 PM
Jan 29

The Fed Funds rate is an overnight lending rate between banks. It affects short term rates , but long term rates, like mortgage rates, are based on lenders' perceptions of risk and future inflation. Under conditions like those recently, with inflation at best "sticky" well above the 2% target, lowering the fed funds rate increases the likelihood of resurgent inflation.

I've observed this dynamic this past year -- the Fed lowers the fed funds rate and yet often mortgage rates and bond rates like the 10 year T-note increase. Nearly half my investable net worth is bonds and other fixed income stuff, so I watch this stuff closely.

Now if the Fed does additional things like buy mortgage-backed securities, then that will push mortgage rates downward or less upward than they would otherwise go. But still, the dominant factor is lenders' perception of risk and future inflation expectations.

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