Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after 88 years

[BumRushDaShow]

12. I will NEVER forget their fuck-up doing the Presidential "daily horserace" polling

where it resulted in them predicting that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 election. After that, they ceased doing that particular poll.

I know I have posted a number of times in the past about that -

November 5, 2012
Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey
Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney
Gallup Editors

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup's final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama.



The survey was conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Nov. 1-4.

(snip)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

And the mea culpa with a final analysis of what went wrong (PDF), where their partner USA Today officially dropped them as a partner after that, and Gallup no longer does this poll -

Gallup identifies flaws in 2012 election polls


Martha T. Moore
USA TODAY
Published 2:24 p.m. E.T. June 4, 2013 | Updated 5:02 p.m. ET June 4, 2013



WASHINGTON – Pollsters at Gallup said Tuesday they have identified flawed methods that contributed to their incorrect prediction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election, but they are still working to determine how to better identify who is likely to vote.

The survey firm undertook a far-reaching review of its operations after its surveys came up short in the election: Gallup's final pre-election estimate showed Romney with 49% support to Obama's 48%, with a margin of error of +/-2%. Most polls estimated Obama would win the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Obama won the popular vote by 3.85 points.

In pre-election polling, Gallup consistently showed Romney with a 3-percentage point lead over Obama. When Gallup switched to surveying only "likely voters," Romney's edge increased to 4 percentage points.

Gallup, with researchers from the University of Michigan, will experiment with ways to better identify likely voters in surveys during the 2013 governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. Gallup asks seven questions in its phone surveys to determine whether people are likely to vote – a questionnaire that may rely too much on past voting and on how much "thought" voters have given to the election, Gallup Poll editor in chief Frank Newport said. Though all polling outfits showed an increase of support for Romney among likely voters vs. registered voters, Gallup's bump for Romney was the most extreme. "We really are re-evaluating that from square one," Newport said.

(snip)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-election-obama-romney/2388921/

There is too much "lying to the pollsters" (as well as "push-polling" ) and there is little hope in getting a true reading of how things stand nowadays.